Kiwi Weekly Price Outlook: NZD/USD Reversal to Threaten Yearly Lows

• Weekly technicals on NZD/USD- reversal targeting key lateral support zone at 6507

  新西兰元/美元兑换的每周技术指标，目标是关键横向支撑区6507

In this series we scale-back and look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. The New Zealand Dollar is down more than 2% against the US Dollar this week after reversing just ahead of confluence resistance and it‘s the moment of truth for Kiwi as price approaches key support nearly the yearly lows. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

在本系列中，我们缩减并查看更广泛的技术图片更多地了解我们的趋势。本周新西兰元兑美元汇率下跌超过2％，之后在汇合阻力位之前出现逆转，而且随着价格接近关键支撑位接近年度低点，这是新西兰的真实时刻。回顾本周的策略网络研讨会，深入了解此设置及其他内容。

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NZD/USD Price Chart - Kiwi Weekly

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Notes: In my latest Kiwi Weekly Price Outlook we noted that, “Failure to mark a weekly close below 6507 would leave the immediate short-bias vulnerable heading into the start of June trade.” The subsequent rebound saw NZD/USD rally more than 3% off the lows early in the month with price failing just ahead of the upper parallel / yearly open resistance at 6705. A decline of more than 2.2% this week has Kiwi once again challenging the 2018 low-week close at 6507 - the focus is on this region into the close on Friday.

注意：在我最新的Kiwi Weekly Price Outlook中，我们注意到，“未能将每周收盘价标记在6507下方，将导致短期偏向弱势进入6月初的交易。”随后的反弹使得纽元兑美元汇率从月初的低点反弹超过3％，价格下跌仅仅在本周下跌超过2.2％的情况下，新西兰证券交易所本周下跌超过2.2％，而新西兰元再次挑战2018年低点收盘价6507--周五该区域将关注该区域。

A downside break targets the 2015 trendline, currently ~6470s, backed by the 2018 low at 6424- look for a bigger reaction there IF reached. Resistance remains with the upper parallel with a breach above the yearly open needed to shift the broader focus higher-(bearish invalidation).

下行中断目标2015年的趋势线，目前约为6470，受到2018年低点6424的支撑 - 期待IF达到更大的反应。阻力位于上方平行线上，并且突破每年开盘所需的突破，以使更广泛的焦点更高 - （看跌失效）。

Bottom line: Kiwi has broken the monthly opening-range lows with the decline taking price into weekly support – risk remains for possible downside exhaustion. A weekly close below 6507 is needed to keep the bears in control. From a trading standpoint, a good spot to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops. Review my latest NZD/USD Price Outlook for a closer look at the near-term Aussie trading levels.

底线：新西兰元已经突破月度开盘价低点，下跌价格为每周支撑 - 可能出现下行疲惫的风险。需要每周收盘低于6507才能控制空头。从交易的角度来看，这是减少短期曝光/降低保护性停留的好地方。查看我最新的新西兰元/美元价格展望，仔细研究近期澳元交易水平。

NZD/USD Trader Sentiment

NZD / USD Trader Sentiment

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• A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long NZD/USD - the ratio stands at +2.96 (74.8% of traders are long) – bearish reading

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• Traders have remained net-long since April 2nd; price has moved 5.1% lower since then

  交易商自4月2日以来一直保持净多头;此后价格已下跌5.1％

• Long positions are 5.4% lower than yesterday and 12.0% higher from last week

  多头头寸比昨天减少5.4％，比上周增加12.0％

• Short positions are 27.2% lower than yesterday and 6.6% lower from last week

  空头头寸比昨天减少27.2％，比上周减少6.6％

• We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Kiwi prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday & last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger NZD/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

  我们通常采取逆向观点来看待人群情绪，而且交易商净多头表明新西兰元价格可能继续下跌。交易商比昨天和上周进一步净多头，目前定位和近期变化的结合使我们从情绪的角度看待新西兰元/美元看跌的逆势交易偏见。

Key New Zealand / US Data Releases

新西兰/美国主要数据发布

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk. Learn more about how we Trade the News in our Free Guide!

经济日历 - 最新的经济发展和即将发生的事件风险。了解我们如何在我们的免费指南中交易新闻！

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Previous Weekly Technical Charts

以前的每周技术图表

• Crude Oil (WTI)

  原油（WTI）

• Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)

  日元（美元/日元）

• Aussie (AUD/USD)

  澳元（澳元/美元）

• Euro (EUR/USD)

  欧元（欧元/美元）

• Swissy (USD/CHF)

  Swissy（USD / CHF）

• US Dollar (DXY)

  美元（DXY）

• Gold (XAU/USD)

  黄金（XAU / USD）