New Zealand Dollar Price Chart: Kiwi Rally Testing 2019 Open

• NZD/USD price recovery probing confluence resistance into June close

  新西兰元/美元价格回升探讨6月收盘时的汇合阻力

The New Zealand Dollar is the top performer against the US Dollar this week with NZD/USD rallying nearly 2% ahead of the close on Friday. The advance takes price into a resistance range we‘ve been tracking for days now and the focus is on the monthly close for guidance. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the NZD/USD charts heading into July. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Kiwi setup and more.

本周新西兰元兑美元汇率表现最佳新西兰元/美元周五收盘前涨幅接近2％。预付款将价格纳入我们现在追踪的阻力范围，并且重点关注月度收盘指引。这些是更新的目标和失效水平，这些水平在7月份的NZD / USD图表中很重要。回顾本周的战略网络研讨会，深入细分这个新西兰语设置等。

Kiwi Price Chart - NZD/USD Daily

新西兰元价格表 - 新西兰元/美元每日

Technical Outlook: In my latest New Zealand Dollar Price Outlook we noted that the Kiwi, “advance now targeting the resistance at 6705/12 – a region defined by the 2019 open and the 50% retracement of the yearly range.The focus is on a reaction off this zone on the back of a seven-day advance in Kiwi with the immediate long-bias at risk into the yearly open.” NZD/USD is poised to mark a ninth consecutive daily advance if price closes at these levels with the rally now probing the 6705/12 resistance zone.

技术展望：在我最新的新西兰元价格展望中，我们注意到新西兰人，“现在预测目标阻力位于6705/12 - 2019年开盘定义的区域和年度区间的50％回撤位置。重点是该区域在七天前进的反应在新西兰元市场，即使长期偏向风险，也会进入年度开盘。”如果价格收于这些水平，新西兰元/美元将连续第九个日上涨，而现在正在调查6705/12阻力位。

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Watch the close of the week / month / quarter – a breach would keep the focus on the 61.8% retracement of the yearly range at 6766. Interim daily support rests at 6662 with broader bullish invalidation down at the highlighted trendline confluence around the 66-handle.

Kiwi Price Chart - NZD/USD 120min

Kiwi Price哈特 - 新西兰元/美元120分钟

Notes: A closer look at Kiwi price action shows NZD/USD trading within the confines of an ascending channel formation extending off the 6/19 low. IF price fails to close above the yearly open, look for a break of this channel / 6657/62 to suggest a near-term correction is underway.

注意：仔细观察新西兰元的价格走势表明新西兰元/美元在上升通道的范围内交易形成延伸至6/19低点。如果价格未能在年度开盘价上方收盘，则寻找该通道/ 6657/62的突破以表明近期修正正在进行中。

Bottom line: The Kiwi breakout is probing a key resistance zone into the close of Q2 and leaves the immediate long-bias at risk heading into the July open if price fails to close above 6705/12. From a trading standpoint, a good place to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops. Be on the lookout for topside exhaustion here with a break below 6657 to offer a larger pullback. Ultimately , well favor fading weakness while above 6600 on a larger pullback targeting a topside breach towards 6766. Review my latest Kiwi Weekly Price Outlook for a longer-term view of the NZD/USD technical trade levels.

一句话：新西兰突破正在探索一个关键的阻力区，直到第二季结束，并且如果在7月份开盘前立即存在长期偏见风险，如果价格未能收于6705/12以上。从交易的角度来看，这是一个减少长时间曝光/提高保护性止损的好地方。在这里寻找上行疲惫，突破6657以提供更大的回调。最终，有利于消退疲软，而在6600以上的较大回调中，目标是向6766上方突破。回顾我最新的新西兰元/美元技术交易水平的新一周价格展望。

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Kiwi Trader Sentiment - NZD/USD Price Chart

Kiwi Trader Sentiment - NZD / USD价格走势表

• A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long NZD/USD - the ratio stands at +1.1 (52.3% of traders are long) – neutral reading

  IG Client Sentiment摘要显示交易者净新西兰元/美元 - 该比率为+1.1（交易者持有的比例为52.3％） - 中性读数

• Long positions are 0.3% lower than yesterday and 21.2% lower from last week

  多头头寸比昨天减少0.3％和21.2％比上周更低

• Short positions are 10.0% lower than yesterday and 98.6% higher from last week

  空头头寸比昨天减少10.0％9比上周高出8.6％

• We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Kiwi (NZD/USD) prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday & last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger NZD/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

  我们很典型y采取逆向观点来看待人群情绪，而且交易商净多头表明新西兰元（新西兰元/美元）的价格可能继续下跌。交易商比昨天和上周进一步净多头，目前的定位和最近的变化相结合，使我们从情绪的角度看待新西兰元/美元看跌的逆势交易偏差。

Relevant New Zealand / US Data Releases

相关的新西兰/美国数据发布