US Dollar Outlook: GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD Price Action Set-Ups

USD Price Analysis and Talking Points:

美元价格分析和谈话要点：

• GBPUSD | Flash Crash Trendline Breaks, Risks of Further Losses

  GBPUSD | Flash Crash Trendline中断，进一步损失的风险

• USDJPY | Record High US Equities Push USDJPY Higher

  USDJPY |美国股市创下新高美元推高美元兑日元

• USDCAD | Hovering Around 2019 Lows

  美元兑加元|徘徊在2019年左右的低点

See our quarterly USD forecast to learn what will drive prices throughout Q3!

查看我们的季度美元预测，了解将在整个第三季度推动价格的因素！

GBPUSD | Flash Crash Trendline Breaks, Risks of Further Losses

GBPUSD |闪电崩盘趋势线突破，进一步损失风险

The outlook for the Pound continues to remain fragile with the currency trading on the defensive against its major counterparts. This week has seen sentiment in the currency deteriorate further as UK data continued to show that the UK economy is softening, while cautious comments from BoE Governor Carney has also seen bets that the central bank eases monetary policy sharply increase with a 25bps rate cut 60% priced in by the year end. The technical outlook for the Pound also remains soft having broken below the trendline from the flash crash low, consequently this has raised scope for a test of the June low at 1.2506 with further support situated at 1.2435 (YTD low). On the topside, resistance rests at the 1.26 handle.

英镑前景仍然脆弱，货币对主要货币的交易处于防御状态。由于英国数据继续表明英国经济正在走软，本周货币情绪进一步恶化，而英国央行行长卡尼的谨慎评论也看到央行放宽货币政策大幅增加，降息幅度为25个基点60％在年底前定价。英镑的技术前景仍然疲软，已从跌破低点的趋势线下方突破，因此这提升了6月低点1.2506的测试范围，进一步支撑位于1.2435（年初至今低位）。在上方，阻力位于1.26手柄。

GBPUSD PRICE CHART: Daily Time Frame (Jan 19 – Jul 19)

英镑兑美元价格表：每日时间框架（1月19日 - 7月19日）

USDJPY | Record High US Equities Push USDJPY Higher

USDJPY |创纪录的美国股市推高美元兑日元新高

As equity market volatility continues to edge lower, equity markets have continued to grind higher with the S&P 500 posting a fresh record high on a move through 3000. As such, in this environment, the Japanese Yen has pulled from its recent advances against its major counterparts with USDJPY now hovering around the 108.00. Although, with the economic outlook seemingly slowing down, the bounce in the pair could be somewhat temporary, thus a rebound towards 108.50-109.00 may offer a potential to fade.

随着股市波动继续走低，股票市场继续走高，标准普尔500指数创下历史新高因此，在这种环境下，日元已经从最近的主要货币上涨，而美元兑日元现在徘徊在108.00附近。虽然随着经济前景似乎放缓，但该货币对的反弹可能有些暂时，因此反弹走向108.50-109.00可能提供褪色的潜力。

On the technical front, the pair has remained within its descending channel, however a break above could see key resistance tested at 108.50, which on prior occasions has held firm, thus raising the risk of a pullback.

技术面上，该货币对仍处于下行通道内，但突破上方可看到关键阻力位于108.50，其中在之前的情况下保持坚挺，从而增加了回调的风险。

USDJPY PRICE CHART: Daily Time Frame (Sep 18 – Jul 19)

美元兑日元价格表：每日时间表（9月18日 - 7月19日）

USDCAD | Hovering Around 2019 Lows

USDCAD |徘徊在2019年左右低点

As Canadian data continues to outperform, the Loonie remains buoyed with USDCAD hovering around 2019 lows. That said, given the outperformance of the Canadian economy relative market expectations eyes will be on next weeks Bank of Canada rate decision and whether the central bank looks to be a lone hawk or join the global dovish stance. As USDCAD tests support at 1.3050, the strength of the downtrend has begun to slow, nonetheless, a closing break below raises scope for a test of the psychological 1.3000 handle.

随着加拿大数据继续跑赢大盘，Loonie继续受到美元兑加元徘徊在2019年低点附近的支撑。也就是说，鉴于加拿大经济表现优异，相对市场预期，下周将加息加拿大央行的利率决定以及中央银行是否会成为一名孤独的鹰或加入全球鸽派的立场。由于美元兑加元的测试支撑位于1.3050，下行趋势的强弱已经开始放缓，但是，收盘跌破会增加测试1.3000心理关口的范围。

USDCAD PRICE CHART: Daily Time Frame (Aug 18 – Jul 19)

USDCAD PRICE CHART：每日时间表（8月18日 - 7月19日）