Gold Prices May Drop as FOMC Minutes Cool Rate Cut Speculation

GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:

黄金和原油谈话要点：

• Gold prices rudderless as Brexit news-flow offers conflicting influences

  黄金由于英国脱欧新闻流提供了相互冲突的影响，价格不受影响

• Crude oil prices remain range-bound, eyeing EIA inventory flow report

  原油价格维持区间震荡，关注EIA库存流量报告

• FOMC meeting minutes may cool rate cut bets, hurt commodity prices

  联邦公开市场委员会会议纪要可能降低降息预期，影响商品价格

Gold prices struggled to for direction, trading inversely of seesaw swings in the US Dollar. It succumbed to cross-currents from a jump in the GBP/USD exchange rate after UK Prime Minister Theresa May floated the possibility of a second Brexit referendum. The move promptly fizzled however, with a rebound in the benchmark currency cooling anti-fiat demand and forcing the yellow metal to retreat.

黄金价格难以挣扎对于方向，与美元的跷跷板波动相反。英国首相特蕾莎·梅（Theresa May）提出第二次英国脱欧公投的可能性后，英镑/美元汇率大幅上涨导致交叉流入。然而，这一举动迅速失败，基准货币的反弹降低了反法定需求并迫使黄金撤退。

All eyes now turn to minutes from May‘s FOMC meeting. Commentary reiterating officials’ wait-and-see approach amid a raft of global uncertainties may cool rate cut hopes. That seems inherently USD-supportive, with haven demand acting as a further accelerant as markets pining for policy support tilt into risk-off territory. Gold is vulnerable in this scenario.

现在所有的目光都转向5月FOMC的会议纪要会议。评论重申官员在一系列全球不确定因素中采取观望态度可能会降低降息希望。这似乎本质上是美元支撑，随着市场对政策支持的压力倾向于避险领域，避险需求成为进一步的促进因素。在这种情况下，黄金很脆弱。

Crude oil prices swung modestly lower but remained well within the narrow congestion range prevailing since late last week. Fed-inspired risk aversion might make for a more committed selloff. Pressure may be compounded if EIA inventory data echoes an API projection showing US stocks added 2.4 million barrels last week. Analysts are betting on a 1.28-million-barrel increase.

原油价格温和走低，但仍然处于上周末以来的窄幅壅塞范围内。受美联储启发的风险规避可能导致更为承诺的抛售。如果EIA库存数据与API预测相呼应，压力可能会加剧，上周美国股市增加240万桶。分析师预计会增加128万桶。

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GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

黄金技术分析

Gold prices are still probing support at a rising trend line guiding them higher since mid-August 2018. This is bolstered by the 1260.80-63.76 inflection area. A daily close below that targets the 1235.11-38.00 zone thereafter. Alternatively, a rebound above resistance in the 1303.70-09.12 region broadly aims for Februarys high at 1346.75, with a minor hurdle in the 1323.40-26.30 price band along the way.

自2018年8月中旬以来，黄金价格仍然在上升趋势线上寻求支撑，引领它们走高。这得到1260.80的支撑。 -63.76拐点区。每日收盘价低于此目标位于此后的1235.11-38.00区域。或者，在1303.70-09.12区域反弹阻力位上方，大部分目标是在3046.75处有高位，其中包括一个轻微的胡一路走到1323.40-26.30的价格区间。

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

原油技术分析

Crude oil prices continue to mark time at the lower bound of a dense block of overlapping resistance levels in the 63.59-67.03 area. If buyers manage the wherewithal to breach it, an opening to retest the $70/bbl figure may present itself. Alternatively, a drop through near-term support at 60.39 sees the next downside barrier in the 57.24-88 zone.

原油价格继续在63.59-67.03区间的重叠阻力位密集区间的下限标记时间。如果买家管理必要的资金来破坏它，可能会出现重新测试70美元/桶的数字。或者，下行支撑位于60.39，下行阻力位于57.24-88区域。

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

商品交易资源

• See our guide to learn about the long-term forces driving crude oil prices

  请参阅我们的指南，了解推动原油价格的长期动力

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

---由DailyFX.com的货币策略师Ilya Spivak撰写