Aussie Price Outlook: Australian Dollar Breakout Vulnerable into RBA

• AUD/USD breakout testing confluence resistance at 6965/72 ahead of RBA

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The Australian Dollar has rallied more than 1.3% off the yearly lows against the US Dollar with the late-May breakout now testing initial resistance targets. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/USD charts heading into the weekly / monthly open. Review this weeks Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

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AUD/USD Daily Price Chart

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Technical Outlook: In our last AUD/USD Trade Update we noted that price was approaching initial resistance at,“6911 backed closely by the upper parallel of the pitchfork weve been tracking since the monthly high- ultimately a topside breach / close above 6934 is needed to suggest a larger recovery is underway.” Aussie closed the month at 6936 with price rallying into a confluence resistance early in the week at 6965/72– the advance would need to hold below this range to suggest this rebound was merely corrective.

为什么普通交易者会失败？在交易中避免这些错误

澳元/美元120分钟价格表

{13} 澳元交易在一个上升的干草叉形成范围内延伸，延续5月低点，75％线汇聚在6965/72阻力区。一个外部反转的蜡烛高点与近期价格分歧进入该区域表明立即推进可能在这里很脆弱 - 初步支撑位于6944，由每周开盘6926支撑。更广泛的看涨失效位于6911.上行突破将焦点保持在7005支持的上线并行（目前为6990）。 { 13} 了解如何在我们的免费交易指南中自信地交易

底线：当前焦点是近期阻力位于6965/72预计近期可能面临风险，但他更广泛关注的仍然高于6911.从交易的角度来看，减少长期风险的好地方/提高保护性止损 - 寻找下行疲惫/褪色弱势回撤至较低的平行线，突破/收盘高于该区域需要标志5月末突破的恢复。请记住，今晚澳大利亚储备银行（RBA）利率决定正在进行中，市场预计将轻微下调25个基点。查看我最新的澳元/美元每周价格展望，以便长期了解Loonie的技术图片。

有关迈克尔斯交易策略的完整细分，请查看他的技术基础关于建立交易策略的系列分析

澳元/美元交易者情绪

{18} IG客户情绪摘要显示交易者为净多头澳元/美元 - 该比率为+1.75（63.6％的交易者为多头） - 看跌

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That said, a breach / close above 6972 is needed to fuel the next leg higher targeting the yearly low-day close at 7005- look for a bigger reaction there IF reached. The trade remains constructive while within this near-term ascending channel formation.

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Why does the average trader lose？ Avoid these Mistakes in your trading

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AUD/USD 120min Price Chart

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Notes: A closer look at price action shows Aussie trading within the confines of an ascending pitchfork formation extending off the May lows with the 75% line converging on the 6965/72 resistance zone. An outside-reversal candle off the highs alongside near-term price divergence into this zone suggests the immediate advance may be vulnerable here – Initial support rests at 6944 backed by the weekly open at 6926. Broader bullish invalidation rests at 6911. A topside breach keeps the focus on the upper parallel (currently ~6990) backed by the 7005.

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Bottom line: The immediate focus is on a near-term resistance here at 6965/72. The advance may be at risk near-term but he broader focus remains higher while above 6911. From a trading standpoint, a good spot to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops – look for downside exhaustion / fade weakness on a pullback into the lower parallels with a breach / close above this region needed to mark resumption of the late-May breakout. Keep in mind the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision is on tap tonight with markets largely expecting a 25bps cut- tread lightly. Review my latest AUD/USD Weekly Price Outlook for a longer-term look at the technical picture on the Loonie.

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For a complete breakdown of Michaels trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

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AUD/USD Trader Sentiment

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• A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long AUD/USD- the ratio stands at +1.75 (63.6% of traders are long) – bearishreading

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• Traders have remained net-long since April 18th; price has moved 2.2% lower since then

• The percentage of traders net-long is now its lowest since Apr 18th

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• Long positions are4.3% lower than yesterday and 12.2% lower from last week

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• Short positions are18.0% higher than yesterday and 18.0% higher from last week

• We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Aussie prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday & compared with last week and the recent changes in sentiment warn that the current AUD/USD price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

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See how shifts in AUD/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

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- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex