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Gold Price Eyes Bullish Consolidation, Silver Price Breaking Bear Sequence
Abstract：Gold remains at lofty levels and needs a period of consolidation if it is to move higher. Silver's recent uptick is being constrained by the 200-day moving average.
Gold Price/Silver Price, Analysis and Charts.
Gold needs to fill the gap before the next leg higher, FOMC permitting.
Silver struggling with technical resistance.
DailyFX Q2 USD and Gold Forecasts and Top 2019 Trading Opportunities.
Gold Rejects 14-Month High
Gold‘s latest rally took it to within $3/oz. of levels last seen in April 2018 as the precious metal continued to rally on the back of a weakening US dollar. Gold has rallied nearly $70/oz. – 5.4% - in a week and the market is currently edging lower. The next move in the precious metal will be predicated by Friday’s US Labor report (NFPs) with any weakness in the jobs report a positive for the precious metal. Wednesdays US ADP employment change report rattled the US dollar, missing expectations by a wide margin – actual 27k vs 183k exp – and printing a nine-year low.
On the charts, gold may well look to fill the gap between $1,309/oz, and $1,320/oz. before any attempt to move higher. Below here there is a tight zone between $1,301 and $1,304/oz. that has provided supportive. To the upside, $1,346.8/oz. guards April 2018 high at $1,365/oz. a level that may well be tested if US NFPs miss expectations.
The CCI indicator shows that the market remains heavily overbought and may well slow any further upside in the short-term.
DailyFX Economic Calendar
How to Trade Gold: Top Gold Trading Strategies and Tips
Gold (XAU) Daily Price Chart (March 2018 – June 6, 2019)
IG Client Sentimentshows that retail traders are 59.4% net-long gold, a bearish contrarian indicator. Recent daily and weekly sentiment shifts however give us a stronger bearish contrarian trading bias.
Silver Runs into Resistance
Silver traded above $15 yesterday but ran into heavy resistance from the 200-day moving average that has help sway since the start of May. Wednesdays trading range was re-traced, and silver now trades around $14.89, below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $14.92 and the 200-day moving average at $15.02. The chart is flashing an overbought signal, but the recent series of lower highs has been broken, adding a positive longer-term spin. It may take a little longer for the chart s to confirm, or not, that silver is out of a bear market.
Silver Daily Price Chart (July 2018 – June 6, 2019)
Disclaimer:
The views in this article only represent the author's personal views, and do not constitute investment advice on this platform. This platform does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information in the article, and will not be liable for any loss caused by the use of or reliance on the information in the article.
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The U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields rebounded at the same time; gold fell by more than 1%!
The initial value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August was 48, which was lower than expected and the lowest in 8 months; the service PMI was 55.2, which exceeded the expected 54. The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending August 17 was 232,000, slightly higher than expected, and the previous value was revised from 227,000 to 228,000. Existing home sales in July increased for the first time in five months. The PMI data was lower than expected, which was bad for the US eco
The U.S. dollar index returned to the 103 mark; gold once plunged nearly $40 from its intraday high!
The monthly rate of retail sales in the United States in July was 1%, far exceeding expectations; the number of initial claims last week was slightly lower than expected, falling to the lowest level since July; traders cut their expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and interest rate futures priced that the Federal Reserve would reduce the rate cut to 93 basis points this year. The probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in September fell to 27%. The data broke the expectation of a
Gold Price Stimulates by Geopolitical Tension
Gold prices experienced their largest gain in three weeks, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East and the easing of the U.S. dollar as markets await the crucial CPI reading due on Wednesday. Gold has surged to an all-time high above $2,460, as uncertainties surrounding developments in both the Middle East and Eastern Europe persist push the demand for safe-haven assets higher.
KVB Today's Analysis: USD/JPY Eyes Volatility Ahead of BoJ Policy Meeting and US Data
The USD/JPY pair rises to 154.35 during the Asian session as the Yen strengthens against the Dollar for the fourth consecutive session, nearing a 12-week high. This is due to traders unwinding carry trades ahead of the Bank of Japan's expected rate hike and bond purchase tapering. Recent strong US PMI data supports the Federal Reserve's restrictive policy. Investors await US GDP and PCE inflation data, indicating potential volatility ahead of key central bank events.
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