GBPUSD Outlook: From a Contrarian Perspective, a Sterling Rally is Due

GBP price, news and analysis:

英镑价格，新闻和分析：

• Sir Richard Branson has warned that a no-deal Brexit could cause the British Pound to plummet to parity with the US Dollar.

  理查德布兰森爵士警告说，没有 - 交易英国脱欧可能导致英镑跌至与美元平价。

• When confidence in Sterling is so low, contrarians might argue that a GBP rally is now on the cards.

  当对英镑的信心如此之低时，逆向投资者可能会争辩英镑。现在已经开始反弹。

GBPUSD outlook: ripe for a recovery

英镑兑美元展望：恢复成熟

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The British Pound has fallen so far against the US Dollar since GBPUSD hit a 2019 high of 1.3382 on March 13 that a rally cannot be ruled out. As the chart below shows, the pair is clearly trending lower. However, it now looks to be forming a base around the 1.25 level and, if that holds, a short-term recovery could be due.

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GBPUSD Price Chart, Daily Timeframe (January 1 – July 11, 2019)

英镑兑美元价格走势图，每日时间表（1月份） 1 - 2019年7月11日）

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Chart by IG (You can click on it for a larger image)

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The tumble in GBPUSD has been due principally to growing fears of a no-deal Brexit if, as seems likely, former UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson becomes the next leader of the ruling Conservative Party and therefore the next British Prime Minister. However, it is possible that such an outcome is now fully priced in to exchange rates.

英镑兑美元下跌的主要原因是人们越来越担心英国脱欧，如果可能的话，前英国外交大臣鲍里斯·约翰逊成为执政党保守党的下一任领导人，因此成为下一任英国人总理。但是，这种结果现在可能完全按照汇率计算。

Trading GBP When a New Tory Leader Takes on Labour

交易英镑当一个新的保守党领导人需要时关于劳工

Moreover, Wednesdays UK economic data were less bad than feared. GDP growth in May, on a three months/three months basis, beat expectations at 0.3% and the construction sector performed well that month – offsetting poor industrial production and manufacturing output numbers. That makes a further easing of UK monetary policy marginally less likely.

此外，周三的英国经济数据并不像人们担心的那么糟糕。 5月份的GDP增长率为3个月/ 3个月，高于预期的0.3％，建筑行业当月表现良好 - 抵消了不良的工业生产和制造业产出数据。这进一步缓解了英国货币政策的可能性。

GBP to fall to parity with US Dollar？

英镑兑美元汇率下跌？

In addition, Sir Richard Branson, the founder of the Virgin group, was reported Wednesday as saying that a no-deal Brexit would cause the Pound to plummet and be worth the same as the Dollar. Contrarians argue that when sentiment is so negative a recovery is overdue.

此外维珍集团的创始人理查德布兰森爵士周三报道说，这是一笔无交易的Bre它会导致英镑暴跌并且与美元相同。反对者认为，当情绪如此负面时，复苏已经过期。

Sterling index steady

英镑指数稳定

On the other side of the GBPUSD pair, the markets are now pricing in a 26.5% chance that the Federal Open Market Committee will cut US interest rates by half a percentage point on July 31 – up sharply since the first leg Wednesday of Fed Chair Jerome Powells semi-annual report to Congress. If that is delivered, the US Dollar could well weaken.

在英镑兑美元对的另一边市场现在认为联邦公开市场委员会将在7月31日将美国利率降低半个百分点的可能性为26.5％ - 自美联储主席杰罗姆鲍威尔向国会提交半年度报告后的第一回合以来大幅上涨。如果交付，美元可能会大幅削弱。

That said, a couple of cautionary notes need to be mentioned. First, negative sentiment towards GBP has been much less pronounced recently when looking at a chart of Sterling since the Brexit referendum against a basket of other currencies.

尽管如此，需要提及一些警示。首先，自英国脱欧公投以来一篮子其他货币以来，看英镑图表时，对英镑的负面情绪不那么明显。

Sterling effective exchange rate index, January 2005 = 100, (January 4, 2016 – July 11, 2019)

1月英镑有效汇率指数2005 = 100，（2016年1月4日 - 2019年7月11日）

Source: Bank of England

来源：英格兰银行

Second, positioning data on retail traders using the IG platform are currently neutral. They show that 82.2% of traders are currently net-long, with the ratio of traders long to short at 4.63 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since May 6, when GBPUSD traded near 1.2911; the price has moved 2.9% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 6.2% lower than yesterday and 10.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 1.0% lower than yesterday and 10.8% lower from last week.

其次，使用IG平台在零售交易商处定位数据目前是中性的。他们表明，82.2％的交易者目前是净多头，交易者的多头比例为4.63比1.事实上，自5月6日英镑兑美元交易于1.2911附近以来，交易者一直保持净多头;此后价格已下跌2.9％。交易商净多头比昨天减少6.2％，比上周增加10.4％，而交易商净空头数比昨天减少1.0％，比上周减少10.8％。

At DailyFX we typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests the GBPUSD price may continue to fall. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us no clear GBPUSD trading bias.

在DailyFX，我们通常采取逆向观点来看待人群情绪，事实上，交易者净多头意味着英镑兑美元价格可能继续下跌。定位比昨天减少净多头，但比上周净多头。当前情绪和近期变化的结合使我们没有明确的英镑兑美元交易偏见。

Retail trader positioning (July 11, 2019)

零售交易员积分离子（2019年7月11日）

Source: DailyFX/IG

来源：DailyFX / IG