US Dollar Rallies on Weaker Euro, Not Better-Than-Expected GDP Report

Having had a day to digest the latest U.S. Gross Domestic Product report, I have to conclude that the U.S. Dollar didn‘t hit its high for the year against a basket of currencies on Friday because of confidence in the U.S. economy. Nor did it reach its highest price since March 2017 because the number raises doubts about future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. It’s because the U.S. economy is growing more consistently than most G7 economies.

有一天消化最新的美国国内生产总值报告，我必须得出结论，由于对美国的信心，周五美元兑一篮子货币没有达到今年的高点。经济。它也没有达到自2017年3月以来的最高价格，因为该数字引发了人们对美联储未来降息的疑虑。这是因为美国经济的增长速度比大多数G7经济体更为持续。

Fridays Commerce Department data showed U.S. GDP grew at a 2.1% annualized rate in the second quarter. This was worse than the unrevised 3.1% pace the economy advanced in the first quarter, but better than most economists forecast. They were looking for GDP rising at just a 1.8% rate in the second quarter.

周五美国商务部的数据显示，美国第二季度GDP年化增长率为2.1％。这比第一季度经济增长的未经修正的3.1％更为糟糕，但好于大多数经济学家的预测。他们期待第二季度国内生产总值仅以1.8％的速度增长。

Furthermore, if you look at the global yields you‘ll see that the dollar’s rise was helped by widening yield differentials between U.S. and German debt. Spreads were holding at two-month highs at 249 basis points. The move in yields indicates investors were disappointed by a lack of policy action from the European Central Bank at its policy meeting on Thursday.

此外，如果你看一下全球收益率，你会看到美元的上涨得到了帮助美国和德国债务之间的收益差异扩大。点差维持在两个月高位249个基点。收益率的变动表明投资者对欧洲央行周四政策会议缺乏政策行动感到失望。

Additionally, U.S. government yields barely moved after the U.S. GDP report was released. If the report truly indicated a strengthening U.S. economy then I wouldve expected U.S. Treasury yields to rise.

此外，美国政府收益率在美国GDP之后几乎没有变动报告发布了。如果该报告确实表明美国经济走强，那么我预计美国国债收益率会上升。

Finally, if you look at the currency weightings in the U.S. Dollar Index, youll see that it consists of 57% Euros. So I have to conclude that the weaker Euro had a bigger influence on the rally in the dollar index than the GDP report.

最后，如果你看一下美元指数中的货币权重，你会看到它包含57％的欧元。因此，我必须得出结论，较弱的欧元对美元指数的反弹影响大于GDP报告。

GDP Report Internals

GDP报告内部结构

In my opinion, the strength of the U.S. GDP report is questionable. It came in lower than the last report, but better than the estimate. There‘s nothing bullish there. It’s like when the stock market dropped 45% in 2009 and some portfolio manager who lost 44% advertised, “We beat the stock market”.

} 在我看来，美国GDP报告的实力值得怀疑。它低于上次报告，但好于预期。那里没什么好看的。就像2009年股市下跌45％和一些投资组合经理失去了44％的广告一样，“我们打败了股市”。

According to reports, the government‘s latest update on economic output, the GDP, shattered the Trump administration’s longstanding hope for 3% GDP growth in 2018.

据报道，政府的最新消息关于经济产出，GP，破坏了特朗普政府长期以来对2018年3％GDP增长的希望。

Taking the advance estimate a step further, we see that the Commerce Departments report showed that gross domestic product expanded 2.5% on a fourth-quarter-over-fourth quarter basis last year and 2.9% from the prior year. That markets a downgrade to a previous estimate of 3% and an upwardly revised 2.8% in 2017.

将预估值更进一步，我们看到美国商务部的报告显示国内生产总值增长去年第四季度比第四季度增长2.5％，比去年同期增长2.9％。市场将其评级下调至此前预期的3％，并在2017年向上修正2.8％。

We know the government data showed the economy grew at a 2.1% annualized rate in the second quarter of 2019. However, it only expanded 2.3% in the second quarter from the year-earlier period. This is the slowest rate of increase in two years.

我们知道政府数据显示经济年增长率为2.1％但是，第二季度仅比去年同期增长了2.3％。这是两年来最慢的增长率。

Outlook

展望

Not only did the economy have to deal with persistent trade war worries and relatively higher interest rates, but the effects of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act are also wearing off. This leaves the economy to stand on its own, and what is it facing？

经济不仅必须应对持续的贸易战担忧和相对较高的利率，但2017年减税和就业法的影响也在减弱。这使得经济自立，面临着什么？

A rate cut in July by the Fed may help ease the pain from lower growth, but if the trade war continues then the Fed will be forced to make a series of rate cuts the rest of the year to keep the economy afloat.

美联储7月份降息可能有助于减轻经济损失增长，但如果贸易战继续下去，那么美联储将被迫在今年剩余时间内进行一系列降息以保持经济运转。

As for the rest of the world, the Asian economy could weaken further as well as the Euro Zone. If the Euro Zone economy continues to weaken and the ECB decides to throw more stimulus at it then the U.S. Dollar Index could continue to rally, but not because the U.S. economy is getting stronger, but because the Euro is getting weaker.

至于其余的在世界范围内，亚洲经济可能进一步走弱，欧元区也将进一步走软。如果欧元区经济持续疲软且欧洲央行决定对其施加更多刺激措施，那么美元指数可能继续反弹，但不是因为美国经济正在走强，而是因为欧元正在变弱。