Gold Price Technical Outlook: XAUUSD Grasps at Support Ahead of FOMC

Gold Price Talking Points:

黄金价格谈话要点：

• Its expected to be a big week for Gold prices with a busy economic calendar. The FOMC walks into a highly-expected rate cut this Wednesday, the first since the Financial Collapse more than ten years ago. The Bank of England hosts a Super Thursday even the morning after, and the week closes with the release of Non-Farm Payroll numbers out of the US.

  黄金价格预计将是一个重要的一周经济日历繁忙的价格。联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）本周三进行了高度预期的降息，这是自十多年前金融崩溃以来的首次降息。英格兰银行即使在早上之后也会举办一场超级星期四，随着美国非农就业数据的公布，本周结束了。

• The big question around Gold is whether this week will give bulls the motivation they need to punch up to fresh six-year-highs or whether this theme will remain under-the-surface until later in the year. The manner in which the FOMC presents the Wednesday rate cut will likely have a large bearing on which of these takes place.

  关于黄金的一个重要问题是，本周是否会给多头提供他们需要的动力，以达到新的六年高点，或者这个主题是否会在今年晚些时候保持低水平。联邦公开市场委员会提出周三降息的方式很可能会对这些降息发生影响。

Gold Prices Grasp for Support Ahead of the Feds First Rate Cut in a Decade

黄金价格抓住前方支撑十年来美联储降息率第一次

This should be a big week for Gold prices, one way or the other. This Wednesday‘s FOMC rate decision looms large as a number of risk trends are waiting to see just how dovish the Federal Reserve might be. A 25 basis point cut has long been expected at this meeting, and this would mark the bank’s first move towards looser policy since the Financial Collapse more than ten years ago. But the backdrop with which this move takes place has a few items of abnormality: This will be the first rate move since Jerome Powell made every meeting live coming into this year. Markets have also diverged rather far from the Feds most recent dot plot matrix concerning rate moves in the rest of the year. The Fed has so far said that they expect one cut while markets are pricing in three or more going out to December.

对于黄金价格来说，这应该是一个重要的一周，不管怎样。由于许多风险趋势正在等待美联储可能会有多么温和，本周三FOMC利率决定迫在眉睫。本次会议长期以来预计会降低25个基点，这标志着该行自十多年前金融崩溃以来首次迈向宽松政策。但这一举动的背景有一些异常：这将是杰罗姆鲍威尔今年开始每场会议以来的首次加息。市场也与联邦调查局最近关于今年剩余时间利率变动的点图矩阵相差甚远。到目前为止，美联储表示他们预计会有一次减息，而市场定价为三或者莫到了12月。

This is key for Gold prices as a more-dovish stance at the Fed can open the door for fresh six-year-highs in the yellow metal. The big question is whether the Fed will highlight future softening in the rest of this year or frame Wednesday‘s rate move as a ’one and done after overtightening last year. Should the latter take place, pressure can remain on the bid of the US Dollar and this could keep Gold prices on their back foot until the bank flips to a move-dovish stance later in the year.

这是黄金价格的关键，因为对美联储更加温和的态度可以打开黄金新的六年高点的大门。最大的问题是，美联储是否会在今年剩余时间内强调未来的疲软，或将周三的利率走势定为“去年以及在过度紧缩之后做的”。如果后者发生，压力可以保持在美元的出价上，这可能会使黄金价格继续下跌，直到该银行在今年晚些时候转向温和的立场。

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As an illustration of this theme, the scenario from a couple of weeks ago remains key: After an off-hand comment from NY Fed President John Williams was widely-inferred to mean that the Fed was looking at a 50 basis point cut, Gold prices flew up to fresh six-year-highs as the US Dollar dropped aggressively. But – when that comment was walked-back, Gold prices pulled back to support and have largely remained around this area ever since. The same 1415 area, taken from the 14.4% Fibonacci retracement of the June breakout, has come back in to help hold the lows similar to what happened two weeks ago.

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Gold Four-Hour Price Chart

黄金四 - 小时价格表

Chart prepared by James Stanley

James Stanley编制的图表

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Taking a step back on the Gold chart and the current area of resistance is imposing. This area, drawn from the August 2013 swing-high down to the 50% marker of the 2012-2015 major move came into play more than a month ago. Since then – it‘s held as resistance in each week since, including a lower-high from last week after prices had softened when the NY Fed walked back Williams’ comments.

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Gold Price Weekly Chart

黄金价格周线图

Chart prepared by James Stanley

图表由James Stanley编制

Gold Price Strategy

黄金价格策略

At this point, the bullish side of Gold prices looks to be fairly-aligned with just how dovish the Fed might be on Wednesday. If the bank forecasts future softening or keeps the door open for even lower rates later in the year, the bid in Gold will likely see some action. If the bank does mention the possibility of QE, then Gold prices can really fly-higher and this is when projections above 1500 come back into play. Otherwise, if the Fed does pitch this rate cut as a ‘one and done’ type of deal in order to moderate rates after last years overtightening, then Gold prices may scale back to a deeper support area on the chart. This can keep focus on areas such as 1375, which was the 2016 swing-high that has yet to be tested for support since the June breakout. A bit-deeper, another area of interest exists around 1357.50, which was the 2017 swing-highs that later come into help cauterize 2018 resistance.

此时，黄金价格的看涨方面看起来与美联储周三的温和程度相当一致。如果该银行预测未来会走软，或者保持大幅开放以便后期利率更低今年，黄金出价可能会出现一些行动。如果银行确实提到量化宽松的可能性，那么黄金价格可能真的飞得更高，这是当1500以上的预测重新发挥作用时。否则，如果美联储确实推销为了在过去几年过度紧缩之后调低利率，这一降息作为“一次性和完成”类型的交易，然后黄金价格可能会回到图表上更深的支撑区域。这可以继续关注1375这样的区域，这是自6月突破以来尚未接受测试支撑的2016年全线走高。更深一点，另一个感兴趣的区域存在于1357.50附近，这是2017年的涨停高点后来帮助烧尽了2018年的抵抗。

Gold Daily Price Chart

黄金每日价格走势图

Chart prepared by James Stanley

Chart詹姆斯·斯坦利准备