EUR/USD Price Action Eyes Inflation Data Ahead of Fed

EURUSD PRICE ACTION TURNS TO EUROZONE INFLATION, US CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DATA

EURUSD价格行动转向欧元区通胀，美国消费者信心数据

• Spot EURUSD currency traders shift focus to Tuesdays release of Eurozone and US inflation numbers in addition to US Consumer Confidence

  现货EURUSD货币交易商将焦点转移到周二释放欧元区和美国通胀数据以及美国消费者信心

• EURUSD implied volatility appears low and indicates attention remains fixated on the upcoming July Fed meeting

  欧元兑美元隐含波动率似乎很低并且表明注意力仍然集中于即将到来的7月美联储会议

The EURUSD Forex Economic Calendar is stacked for Tuesdays trading session with high-impact data slated to cross the wires out of the Eurozone and US. Updated readings on GDP, inflation and consumer confidence are expected, which all have potential to spark volatility in spot EURUSD.

欧元兑美元外汇经济日历汇集于周二的交易时段，其中包含高影响力的数据。欧元区和美国。有关GDP，通胀和消费者信心的最新数据预计会出现，这些都有可能引发现货欧元兑美元的波动。

EURUSD FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR

欧元兑美元外汇经济日历

Despite the several economic indicators due for release that typically move the market‘s needle, Tuesday’s data dump out of the Eurozone and US is anticipated to be broadly overlooked by forex traders judging by EURUSD implied volatility.

尽管有几个经济指标即将发布，这通常推动市场走势，但周二的数据从欧元区和美国抛售预计将被外汇交易商广泛忽视。欧元兑美元隐含波动率。

EURUSD IMPLIED VOLATILITY SUBDUED DESPITE ECONOMIC CALENDAR EVENT RISK

欧元兑美元隐含的波动率低于经济日历事件风险

EURUSD overnight implied volatility was just clocked at 4.85% and is noticeably below the 12-month average of 6.10%. The subdued reading for EURUSD overnight implied volatility suggests that Eurozone CPI and US Core PCE inflation data is chalked up to be non-events. As such, there may be little reaction or follow through in spot EURUSD. This can be explained principally by the looming July Fed meeting scheduled for the following day which is expected to be the dominate market theme this week.

EURUSD隔夜隐含波动率刚刚达到4.85％并且没有比12个月平均值6.10％低得多。欧元兑美元隔夜隐含的波动表明欧元区CPI和美国核心PCE通胀数据被认为是非事件。因此，现货欧元兑美元可能几乎没有反应或跟进。这可以解释为原则预计第二天即将举行的7月美联储会议即将成为本周主导的市场主题。

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EURUSD RISK REVERSAL POINTS TO DOWNSIDE BIAS

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Interestingly, the demand for spot EURUSD downside protection is quickly returning as suggested by. This could be explained by the fact that US economic data has come in hotter-than-expected as of late, whereas Eurozone economic data has broadly disappointed to the downside, according to recent Citi Economic Surprise Index readings.

有趣的是，现货欧元兑美元下行保护的需求正在迅速恢复，如图所示。最近花旗经济惊喜指数（Citi Economic Surprise Index）数据显示，这可能是因为美国经济数据最近的表现比预期更热，而欧元区的经济数据普遍令人失望。

EURUSD PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (DECEMBER 16, 2018 TO JULY 29, 2019)

EURUSD PRICE CHART：每日时间框架（2018年12月16日至2019年7月29日）

That said, spot EURUSD is estimated to fluctuate within a 56-pip range between 1.1112-1.1168 during Tuesdays trading session with a 68% statistical probability calculated from EURUSD overnight implied volatility of 4.85%. Moves to the downside may prove short lived considering major technical support at the 1.1100 mark in addition to the outstanding risk that the Fed shocks markets with a firm monetary policy stance on Wednesday.

那就是说，预计欧元兑美元汇率在周二交易时段内在1.1112-1.1168之间波动在56个点之间，从欧元兑美元隔夜隐含波动率4.85％计算出68％的统计概率。考虑到1.1100大关的主要技术支撑以及美联储在周三以坚定的货币政策立场冲击市场的巨大风险，向下行可能是短暂的。

Yet, there is the possibility that EURUSD overnight implied volatility is underpriced and the upcoming Eurozone and US economic data will spark a larger-than-expected move in the spot market. If Eurozone inflation data comes in below market consensus, the need for future monetary stimulus hinted at by ECB President Draghi last week could be solidified and would likely send spot EURUSD lower. Then again, a move lower may be reversed if US inflation and consumer confidence data disappoint as well seeing that it could encourage greater expectations for an aggressive Fed rate cut later this week.

欧元兑美元隔夜隐含波动率可能被低估，即将到来的欧元区和美国经济数据将引发现货市场大于预期的走势。如果欧元区通胀数据低于市场预期，欧洲央行行长德拉吉上周暗示的未来货币刺激措施的需求可能会巩固，并可能使现货欧元兑美元走低。如果美国通胀和消费者信心数据令人失望，并且可能会鼓励更大的预期，那么再次走低可能会逆转美联储本周晚些时候将降息。