Apple Event: AAPL Stock Price Tends to Rise After iPhone Launch

Apple (AAPL) Analysis and Talking Points

• Apple Shares Tend to Rise Following iPhone Launch

• Wall Street Remains Bullish Despite US-China Trade War Backdrop

• Consequently, the Nasdaq 100 will keep a watchful eye on AAPL and its suppliers

Apple Event: AAPL Stock Price Tends to Rise After iPhone Launch

As is usually the case, the Apple iPhone launch date is among the biggest events of the year for the company and Apple investors. While the share of revenue generated from the iPhone has decreased over time as Apple diversifies, it still makes up over half of the companys revenue and therefore remains integral to the growth outlook for the company.

Since the 2011 iPhone launch, Apple shares have on average gained 1.5% in the following 3-months (Hit ratio = 75%) and over 10% in 6-months (Hit ratio = 62.5). That said, the external environment can of course play a role in the companys performance. This had been evidenced last year as concerns over slowing global growth amid the US-China trade war sparked a violent Q4 sell-off in global equity markets.

Chart prepared by Justin McQueen

Wall Street Remains Bullish Despite US-China Trade War Backdrop

The other important date for Apple investors will be December 15th, where the US administration is expected to place fresh tariffs on Chinese made goods, including cellphones and laptops, therefore providing a headwind for Apple going forward. However, despite this, Wall Street remain optimistic on Apple shares with a median price target of $223.74 (4.4% upside).

Chart prepared by Justin McQueen

Apart from AAPL and its immediate suppliers, the broader equity market should also take note of the event. Viewed as a bellwether of market performance by some due to its size and track-record, Apple can carry significant sway over stock sentiment - as evidenced by January‘s currency flash crash following Apple’s forecast downgrade.

As the event progresses, check back for updates and share price reactions…