EUR/USD Upside seems limited ahead of the FOMC!|KOL Analysis•Olimpiu Tuns

EUR/USD remains under some bearish pressure after another failure to close above 1.19 psychological level. USD has rebounded as the dollar index could still resume its up reversal.

Today, the FOMC Statement, FOMC Economic Projections, Federal Funds Rate, and the FOMC Press Conference will shake the markets and will bring sharp movements on EUR/USD. Also, the US Retail Sales could increase by 1.1% in August, while the Core Retail Sales is expected to register a 1.0% growth, less verssus 1.9% in July.

● Is the USDXs drop over？

The dollar index seems determined to come back higher after the most recent drop. I‘ve said in my previous analyses that, USDX could decrease a little only to test and retest the broken downtrend line, Falling Wedge’s resistance, before going towards new highs.

92.55 is seen as a critical support, the failure to reach it in the last two attempts could signal strong USD buyers. Its traded above 93.00 psychological level buy only another higher high, jump above 93.66 level could really validate further growth.

Technically, the index is exected to extend its rebound after escaping from the Falling Wedge reversal pattern. A valid breakout above the 93.81 and above the upper median line (UML) suggests a medium to the long term reversal.

The upside scenario could be invalidated by a bearish closure below 92.55 - 92.00 area. It remains to see how it will react after the FED.

● EUR/USD Undecided!

The pair continues to stay within the minor up channel‘s body. Yesterday’s failure to reach the second warning line signals a bearish pressure around this dynamic resistance. Its traded at 1.1850 level, a valid breakout above 1.19 suggests upside continuation, while a drop below 1.1750 could announce a corrective phase.

A drop below 1.1753 could validate a Head&Shoulders pattern on the Daily chart. You should be careful today around the FOMC because anyting could happen.

Technically, EUR/USD is still bullish as long it stays within the ascending channels body and above 1.18 level. Only a downside breakout could activate a sell-off scenario. As you already know from my latest articles, the pair shoul extend its upwards movement if it closes above the second warning line (WL2) which acts as strong dynamic resistance.

We‘ll have a sharp rally if EUR/USD wil invalidate the bearish divergence with an upside breakout from the current channel. On the other hand, a USDX’s rally after the FOMC could send the rate below the 250% Fibonacci line and below 1.17 suggesting selling.

As you can notice, EUR/USD is trapped also between the WL2 and the 250% Fibonacci line, a valid breakout from this pattern will definitely bring a great trading opportunity.

● XAU/USD Ready To Explode!

Gold is trading in the green at the $1,960 level and it could try to take out the triangles resistance in the upcoming hours. Fundamentally, a dovish FED should push the price of gold higher.

The price approaches the minor downtrend line again despite yesterday‘s false breakout signaling strong buyers. An upside valid breakout and a bullish closure above $1,972 yesterday’s high confirms more gains and brings a long opportunity.

From the technical viewpoint, only a drop below $1,900 and below the upper median line (UML) could invalidate further growth, the bullish scenario, and could announce broader corrective phase.

{About the Author}

Olimpiu Tuns is a seasoned market analyst / trader / trainer on the financial markets with expertise in forex, cryptocurrencies, commodities, futures, options, index, CFD for more than 8 years. He is also a famous blogger in both technical and fundamental analysis, trading signals, trade setups, etc.

He has worked as a Market Analyst / Consultant for three major Brokerage companies, Admiral Markets, MultiBank Exchange Group, and InstaForex (live webinars, market analysis, educational materials, video analysis, video tutorials, ghostwriting, content creator), as a Social Media Manager and as a Financial Markets & Crypto Analyst / Contributor for very important news portals/blogs (investing.com, benzinga.com, forexalchemy.com actionforex.com, countingpips.com), websites, educational platforms (Forex.Academy, Forex.Today), independent clients, etc.

Olimpiu Tuns currently works as a Financial Markets & Crypto Analyst / Trader / Trainer / Portfolio Manager.

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