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Abstract: USD/JYP retreated to a five-week low of 104.21 on Wednesday.
WikiFX News (29Oct.) - USD/JYP retreated to a five-week low of 104.21 on Wednesday. The pair is possible to edge lower considering both the Bank of Japan is expected to keep its monetary policy steady and haven inflows may buoy JPY amid the second wave of coronavirus in Europe.
The Bank of Japan(BOJ) Governors indicated that an additional economic stimulus package is unnecessary for the moment as the economy is headed for a moderate recovery. The BOJ will likely leave its yield targets unchanged at -0.1%, with the 10-year yield targeted at 0%.
Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga's newly introduced “Go to Travel” campaign, which offers subsidies for domestic travel, is cited as one of the major hindrances on consumer price growth.
In addition, Japan's number of coronavirus infections has notably stabilized since August, while the nation's composite PMI is expected to show the economy is continuing to recover from the contraction. With that said, lockdowns in Europe in response to the resurgence of the pandemic may encourage investors to divert capital into safe havens, which is a boost to JPY.
Technically speaking, USD/JPY remains bearish in recent days, thrusting the psychologically pivotal of 103.00 into the spotlight.
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Chart: Trend of USD/JPY
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The yen weakens further as Fed Chair Powell's cautious remarks influence market sentiment. USD/JPY remains around 161, with resistance at 162, driven by Powell's comments and upcoming US CPI data. June's lower-than-expected PPI in Japan adds pressure on the yen. The sentiment is bullish for USD/JPY, supported by strong US economic indicators. Key influences include Federal Reserve signals, US economic data, and Japan's PPI. Potential movement for USD/JPY could see it testing 162 resistance.
The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.5 in June, below expectations, but the dollar rebounded after a Supreme Court ruling in favor of Trump. Investors await U.S. job data for hints on potential Federal Reserve rate cuts. Despite rising U.S. bond yields, gold remains strong near $2300. If it breaks above the 50-day moving average of $2337, it could reach $2390-$2400, but faces resistance at $2339.21. A drop below $2323.29 would weaken the bullish signal; watch for a breakout in the $2291.
The yen continues to weaken against major currencies, with USD/JPY potentially climbing above 165. Japan's officials express concerns, hinting at potential intervention. Stable domestic indicators fail to support the yen amid robust USD performance.
The USD/JPY pair is predicted to increase based on both fundamental and technical analyses. Fundamental factors include a potential easing of aggressive bond buying by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which could lead to yen depreciation. Technical indicators suggest a continuing uptrend, with the possibility of a correction once the price reaches the 157.7 to 160 range.