US Dollar Analysis, Road Ahead Bumpy: USD/SGD, USD/THB, USD/IDR, USD/PHP

US DOLLAR, USD/SGD, USD/THB, USD/PHP, USD/IDR – ASEAN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

• US Dollar remains vulnerable against ASEAN currencies

• USD/SGD and USD/THB eyeing key support levels next

• USD/IDR and USD/PHP may extend their recent declines

SINGAPORE DOLLAR TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

The US Dollar continues to remain under pressure against the Singapore Dollar, but the latter faces its next key technical test against the former. USD/SGD is pressuring the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3238, which is acting as key immediate support. There may be room for a bounce here, but it will remain to be seen if it will be enough to overturn Marchs top.

A bearish crossover did occur between the 20-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages earlier this month, opening the door to a downward trajectory. So these could come into focus in the event of a turn higher, acting as key areas of resistance. Taking out the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement would then expose current 2021 lows, making for a critical zone of support between 1.3158 and 1.3189.

USD/SGD DAILY CHART

Chart Created in TradingView

THAI BAHT TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

The US Dollar continues to struggle making further upside progress against the Thai Baht. USD/THBs aggressive uptrend from February through March has noticeably cooled. In fact, the pair recently took out the 20-day SMA. This also followed the emergence of a Shooting Star candlestick pattern, hinting that a top was in store earlier this month – as expected.

But, resuming the top still entails a drop through key support at 31.11. Taking out the latter would open the door to extending the reversal, exposing the 50-day SMA below. This can reinstate the upside focus. If not, then the pair would be likely aiming for the 30.86 – 30.80 inflection zone. Otherwise, a bounce off immediate support may place the focus back on peaks achieved in early April.

USD/THB DAILY CHART

INDONESIAN RUPIAH TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

The US Dollar remains at risk to the Indonesian Rupiah after USD/IDR appeared to top earlier in April. This followed a brewing bearish Rising Wedge chart pattern. A breakout subsequently occurred, with the pair achieving confirmation thereafter. Now, immediate support seems to be at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 14462, with the 50-day SMA sitting below.

The latter could reinstate the focus to the upside, making for a key point of support. Taking it out on the other hand may open the door to facing the 38.2% level at 14349. Below that sits the December 2020 high at 14280, which may act as a key inflection point. Otherwise, a bounce off immediate support may pave the way to revisit the early April high at 14645.

For updates on ASEAN currencies as they break key technical levels, be sure to follow me on Twitter @ddubrovskyFX.

USD/IDR DAILY CHART

PHILIPPINE PESO TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

The Philippine Peso continues to hold a slightly bullish posture against the US Dollar, albeit progress has been slow since USD/PHP topped in late February. A bearish crossover between the 20-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages hints that the immediate bias remains lower. But, the 48.40 – 48.35 remains a key inflection point to overcome. Beyond that sits the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 48.1792. Under that is the 78.6% level at 47.95. Pushing above the SMAs on the other hand exposes the 23.6% level at 48.68.

USD/PHP DAILY CHART

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