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Abstract:USD/JPY: Strong U.S. GDP Pushes Yen To 109
The Japanese yen is in negative territory on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 109.03, up 0.41% on the day.
U.S. GDP Sparkles
The U.S. economy posted strong growth in the first quarter of the year, with a gain of 6.4% QoQ. This was just shy of the 6.5% forecast and up from 4.3% at the end of 2020. The solid reading was another sign that the economy is recovering at a rapid clip. The U.S. dollar responded with strong gains, with USD/JPY punching above the 109 level. The U.S. dollar has been struggling lately, but the greenback is enjoying a strong week against the yen, with gains of 1.0%.
The FOMC meeting reiterated that the Federal Reserve remains committed to a dovish policy. However, a close look at the language of the rate statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powells follow-up remarks revealed a few subtle changes from previous meetings. The Fed acknowledged progress in the battle to control COVID-19 and the strengthening of the U.S. labour market, stating:
“Amid progress on vaccinations and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have strengthened”.
When Powell was asked specifically about tapering, he replied that it was too early to have a conversation about that. This sent U.S. yields lower, dragging down the U..S dollar. However, the excellent U.S. GDP report has resulted in a rebound for the U.S. dollar, and the dollar could continue to improve if upcoming U.S. data is positive.
Turning to Japan, there is a dump of economic data later on Thursday and early Friday. Of particular interest is Tokyo Core CPI (23:30 GMT). The index has reeled off eight straight declines, but is expected to improve to 0.0% in April.
USD/JPY Technical
USD/JPY Daily Chart.
USD/JPY is testing resistance at 108.65. Above, there is resistance at 109.43.
On the downside, there is support at 107.29 and 106.71.
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The yen weakens further as Fed Chair Powell's cautious remarks influence market sentiment. USD/JPY remains around 161, with resistance at 162, driven by Powell's comments and upcoming US CPI data. June's lower-than-expected PPI in Japan adds pressure on the yen. The sentiment is bullish for USD/JPY, supported by strong US economic indicators. Key influences include Federal Reserve signals, US economic data, and Japan's PPI. Potential movement for USD/JPY could see it testing 162 resistance.
The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.5 in June, below expectations, but the dollar rebounded after a Supreme Court ruling in favor of Trump. Investors await U.S. job data for hints on potential Federal Reserve rate cuts. Despite rising U.S. bond yields, gold remains strong near $2300. If it breaks above the 50-day moving average of $2337, it could reach $2390-$2400, but faces resistance at $2339.21. A drop below $2323.29 would weaken the bullish signal; watch for a breakout in the $2291.
The yen continues to weaken against major currencies, with USD/JPY potentially climbing above 165. Japan's officials express concerns, hinting at potential intervention. Stable domestic indicators fail to support the yen amid robust USD performance.
The USD/JPY pair is predicted to increase based on both fundamental and technical analyses. Fundamental factors include a potential easing of aggressive bond buying by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which could lead to yen depreciation. Technical indicators suggest a continuing uptrend, with the possibility of a correction once the price reaches the 157.7 to 160 range.