Bitcoin Outlook

Bitcoin prices plummeted a staggering 53% from the record highs in April with the sell-off responding to downtrend support. Wednesday marked the third test of this critical support zone and while the broader outlook remains ominous from a technical backdrop, the immediate decline may be vulnerable here with the bears at risk in the near-term. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the BTC/USD technical price charts.

BITCOIN PRICE CHART – BTC/USD DAILY

Notes: A closer look at Bitcoin price action shows BTC/USD trading within the confines of an descending pitchfork formation extending off yearly highs. Wednesdays rebound off the lower parallel has Bitcoin targeting initial resistance at the June Open at 37280 with the objective monthly opening-range highs just beyond at 39490. Broader bearish invalidation remains with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the yearly-to-date 2021 range / 200day moving average at 41930. Initial support steady at the yearly low-day close at 32005 with a break below 30655 needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend towards subsequent support objective at the 2021 yearly open 28999 and the 61.8% retracement of the 2020 rally / yearly opening-range low at 27169/734.

Bottom line: Bitcoin has rebounded off confluence downtrend support- the immediate focus is on this recovery. From at trading standpoint, look for topside exhaustion ahead of 39490 IF price is indeed heading lower with a break / close below 30655 needed to mark resumption. Ultimately, a breach / close above 41930 would be needed to validate a broader reversal pattern with such a scenario exposing downtrend resistance, currently near 45500.

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