U.S. recession still likely despite resilient economic data – PIMCO

NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. bond manager Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO) is sticking to its previous forecast that the U.S. economy is headed toward a recession, despite recent data indicating economic resilience.

纽约（路透社）——美国债券管理公司太平洋投资管理公司（pimco）坚持其先前的预测，即美国经济正走向衰退，尽管最近的数据表明经济具有韧性。

An employment report last week showed U.S. job growth accelerated sharply in January while the unemployment rate hit a more than 53-1/2-year low of 3.4%, pointing to a tight labor market that could be a headache for the Federal Reserve in its battle against inflation.

上周的一份就业报告显示，美国 1 月份就业增长大幅加速，而失业率触及 3.4% 的逾 53-1/2 年低点，表明劳动力市场吃紧可能令美联储感到头疼。对抗通货膨胀。

Tiffany Wilding, PIMCO North American economist, said the strong economic data suggests a recession may come later than previously expected, but remains likely.

pimco 北美经济学家蒂芙尼·威尔丁 (tiffany wilding) 表示，强劲的经济数据表明经济衰退可能比此前预期的要晚，但仍有可能。

“Recent data on net haven‘t caused us to change our outlook for a mild U.S. recession – we’re only pushing the timing back a little bit,” she said in a note.

“最近的网络数据并没有让我们改变对美国温和衰退的预期——我们只是将时间推迟了一点，”她在一份报告中说。

PIMCO, which manages $1.7 trillion in assets, said last month it would focus on high-quality bonds this year due to their higher returns and the protection they offer should the global economy economic downturn be deeper than anticipated.

管理着 1.7 万亿美元资产的 pimco 上个月表示，今年将重点关注高质量债券，因为它们的回报率更高，而且如果全球经济衰退比预期更严重，它们可以提供保护。

Some investors believe signs of strength in the labor market make a recession less likely and increase the chances of a soft landing, in which the Fed tames inflation without pushing the economy into a recession. Goldman Sachs now sees a 25% probability of the United States entering a recession in the next 12 months, down from a previous 35% forecast.

一些投资者认为，劳动力市场的强劲迹象降低了经济衰退的可能性，并增加了软着陆的可能性，即美联储在不将经济推入衰退的情况下抑制通胀。高盛现在认为美国在未来 12 个月内进入衰退的可能性为 25%，低于此前预测的 35%。

Markets have rallied over the past few months on the back of moderating inflation. In January, U.S. Treasury yields – a benchmark for borrowing costs on assets ranging from mortgages to corporate loans – declined by about 30 basis points.

在通胀放缓的支持下，市场在过去几个月出现反弹。 1 月份，美国国债收益率——衡量从抵押贷款到公司贷款等资产的借贷成本的基准——下降了约 30 个基点。

That rally, however, stumbled last week as the jobs data raised the prospect of more interest rate hikes by the Fed.

然而，由于就业数据提高了美联储进一步加息的可能性，上周涨势受阻。

“Although market-based measures of financial conditions have eased somewhat recently, financial conditions are still tight by historical standards,” Wilding said.

“虽然基于市场的金融状况衡量标准最近有所缓解，但按照历史标准衡量，金融状况仍然紧张，”威尔丁说。

“We think its underappreciated how much tightening pressure the overnight rate actually puts on the economy.”

“我们认为它低估了隔夜利率实际给经济带来的紧缩压力。”