Analysis-Gazproms export revenue may fall by 50% in 2023

MOSCOW (Reuters) – Lost European sales could halve the export revenues of Russias Gazprom this year, meaning a steep reduction in tax income for the state, according to analysts, export data and Reuters calculations.

莫斯科（路透社）——根据分析师、出口数据和路透社的计算，欧洲销售的损失可能会使俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司今年的出口收入减半，这意味着该州的税收收入将大幅减少。

Exports made by Gazprom, one of the country‘s largest taxpayers, shrank after President Vladimir Putin’s “special military operation” in Ukraine triggered Western sanctions and as some supplies of gas to Europe from Russia declined.

俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司是该国最大的纳税人之一，在总统弗拉基米尔·普京 (vladimir putin) 在乌克兰的“特别军事行动”引发西方制裁以及俄罗斯向欧洲的部分天然气供应下降后，其出口出现萎缩。

According to Reuters calculations, based on export duties and volumes, Gazproms revenues from overseas sales may have declined in January to $3.4 billion from $6.3 billion in the year-earlier period following a fall in gas supplies to Europe.

根据路透社的计算，根据出口关税和出口量，由于对欧洲的天然气供应减少，俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司 1 月份的海外销售收入可能从去年同期的 63 亿美元下降至 34 亿美元。

If the trend continues, Gazproms export revenues for the whole year could be halved compared to 2022 when its export volumes also declined by nearly half.

如果这种趋势继续下去，俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司全年的出口收入可能会比 2022 年减半，届时其出口量也将下降近一半。

The world‘s largest producer of natural gas, which no longer publishes its earnings, did not respond to a request for comment. Neither did Russia’s finance ministry.

这家全球最大的天然气生产商不再公布其收益，没有回应置评请求。俄罗斯财政部也没有。

Gazprom is one of Russias largest contributors to the budget, which saw a deficit of 1.76 trillion roubles ($24 billion) in January, prompted by a slump in energy revenues and soaring expenditure.

俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司是俄罗斯预算的最大贡献者之一，由于能源收入下滑和支出飙升，该预算在 1 月份出现了 1.76 万亿卢布（240 亿美元）的赤字。

Moscow relies on income from oil and gas – last year around 11.6 trillion roubles – and has been forced to start selling international FX reserves to cover a budget deficit increased by the cost of the conflict in Ukraine.

莫斯科依赖石油和天然气的收入——去年约为 11.6 万亿卢布——并被迫开始出售国际外汇储备，以弥补因乌克兰冲突成本而增加的预算赤字。

Lower revenues

收入减少

In 2022, Gazprom‘s export volumes fell by 46%, according to the company. Reuters calculations found it still could have earned record revenue of $80 billion due to higher prices, helping to bolster tax revenues to the state, which also benefited from gas tax hikes and Gazprom’s generous dividends.

据该公司称，2022 年，俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司的出口量下降了 46%。路透社的计算发现，由于价格上涨，它仍然可以赚取创纪录的 800 亿美元收入，这有助于增加该州的税收收入，该州还受益于天然气税上调和俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司的慷慨股息。

Gazprom earned a record-high 2.5 trillion roubles ($34 billion) in net profit in the first half of 2022, boosted by gas prices, which surged on international markets because of concerns of supply disruption. After that the company, in common with many Russian firms, stopped disclosing its financial results.

受天然气价格推动，俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司在 2022 年上半年的净利润达到创纪录的 2.5 万亿卢布（340 亿美元），由于担心供应中断，天然气价格在国际市场上飙升。此后，该公司与许多俄罗斯公司一样，停止披露其财务业绩。

Gazprom‘s Chief Executive Officer Alexei Miller, an ally of Putin, has said the company paid 5 trillion roubles in taxes to federal and regional budgets last year, accounting for almost a fifth of federal budget’s proceedings.

俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司首席执行官阿列克谢米勒是普京的盟友，他表示该公司去年向联邦和地区预算缴纳了 5 万亿卢布的税款，几乎占联邦预算程序的五分之一。

But 2023 may be tougher as international gas prices have fallen and the amount of gas supplied to Europe is far below that for the first few months of last year.

但 2023 年可能会更加艰难，因为国际天然气价格已经下跌，而且供应给欧洲的天然气量远低于去年头几个月的水平。

Gazprom has not provided forecasts for gas exports for this year. According to projections by some analysts, exports outside ex-Soviet Union may reach some 50-65 billion cubic metres (bcm), excluding supplies to China.

俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司没有提供今年的天然气出口预测。根据一些分析师的预测，前苏联以外的出口量可能达到约 50-650 亿立方米 (bcm)，不包括对中国的供应。

“Supplies to Turkey (some 30-32 bcm), China (15.5 bcm with an increase to 25-30 bcm in 2023) and CIS (ex-Soviet Union) of some 25 bcm will not be able to replace the EU market,” Moscow-based Loko-Invest said in a review.

“供应给土耳其（约 30-32 bcm）、中国（15.5 bcm，到 2023 年增加到 25-30 bcm）和独联体（前苏联）约 25 bcm 将无法取代欧盟市场，”总部位于莫斯科的 loko-invest 在一份评论中说。

Gazproms exports outside ex-Soviet Union fell by more than 45% to 100.9 bcm in 2022 from 185.1 bcm in 2021.

俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司对前苏联以外地区的出口从 2021 年的 185.1 bcm 下降超过 45% 至 2022 年的 100.9 bcm。

The Economy Ministry forecasts Gazprom‘s export price for 2023 at $700 per 1,000 cubic metres. If the calculations are right, Gazprom’s exporting revenues could reach between $35 billion and $46 billion this year.

经济部预测俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司 2023 年的出口价格为每 1,000 立方米 700 美元。如果计算正确，俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司今年的出口收入可能达到 350 亿美元至 460 亿美元。

BCS brokerage analyst Ronald Smith said if the average price is closer to $615, “then European revenues would drop to only $40 billion.”

bcs 经纪分析师罗纳德史密斯表示，如果平均价格接近 615 美元，“那么欧洲的收入将降至仅 400 亿美元。”

Russia has turned away from the West and will develop new markets for its oil and gas, Putin says. But that will take time.

普京表示，俄罗斯已经远离西方，并将为其石油和天然气开发新市场。但这需要时间。

He mooted the idea of gas hub in Turkey last October, to redirect gas from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea region.

去年 10 月，他提出了在土耳其建立天然气枢纽的想法，将天然气从波罗的海转移到黑海地区。

“To realise full potential of the concept, Russia will have to do a lot of work with partners in the region, which is still possible, but requires time,” said Sergei Kapitonov from Skoltech Project centre for energy transition and ESG.

“为了充分发挥这一概念的潜力，俄罗斯将不得不与该地区的合作伙伴做大量工作，这仍然是可能的，但需要时间，”skoltech 能源转型和 esg 项目中心的谢尔盖卡皮托诺夫说。

($1 = 73.7000 roubles)

($1 = 73.7000 卢布)