简体中文
繁體中文
English
Pусский
日本語
ภาษาไทย
Tiếng Việt
Bahasa Indonesia
Español
हिन्दी
Filippiiniläinen
Français
Deutsch
Português
Türkçe
한국어
العربية
Abstract:Recent US figures have seen a rout in treasury yields with the flagship 10-year now yielding 4.435% after starting November at 16-year highs north of 5% and in a seemingly unstoppable uptrend. A cooler CPI and PPI showing inflation is decelerating at a faster pace than the market anticipated, along with weaker employment and industrial production figures have traders re-adjusting for a less hawkish Fed and bringing their timing forward for the pricing in of rate cuts.
Recent US figures have seen a rout in treasury yields with the flagship 10-year now yielding 4.435% after starting November at 16-year highs north of 5% and in a seemingly unstoppable uptrend. A cooler CPI and PPI showing inflation is decelerating at a faster pace than the market anticipated, along with weaker employment and industrial production figures have traders re-adjusting for a less hawkish Fed and bringing their timing forward for the pricing in of rate cuts.
Why this is important to serious FX traders is because rates and FX have a high correlation, even more in the post pandemic period of cuts, hikes and peak rates and maybe cuts again, big FX traders look for yield and that can be used as important information for smaller players to position themselves to take advantage of that. An example of this relationship can be seen on the weekly chart of the US Dollar index below.
The US dollar Index has fallen 2.5% so far in November, a move first started with the big miss in NFP which saw support at the 23.6 Fib level broken, then accelerating this week on a Cooler CPI which saw it take out the 38.2 Fib level support which the price is currently hovering around at 104.41.
This along with the situation in yields will be the level to watch in the short term, if yield and dollar bulls take charge a break and support hold could see USDollar first test the lower trend line resistance, with the next stop from a technical point of view being the 23.6 Fib level resistance at 105.545. To the downside if yields continue their fall the next technical support will be the 50% fib level, paired with the 200-day moving average.
Next week there are a few important data points with FOMC minutes, consumer sentiment and manufacturing figures all scheduled. For FX traders they will be worth watching for any further clues as to yields and where traders think they will go as they work to front run the Fed.
Disclaimer:
The views in this article only represent the author's personal views, and do not constitute investment advice on this platform. This platform does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information in the article, and will not be liable for any loss caused by the use of or reliance on the information in the article.
Brokers are often classified into two categories: A-book and B-book brokers. Understanding these distinctions can help traders choose the right broker for their trading needs. In this article, we’ll delve into what A-book and B-book brokers are, how they operate, and the key differences between them.
Two of the most notorious frauds are the pyramid scheme and the Ponzi scheme. Understanding these differences is essential for avoiding these traps and recognizing the red flags of financial fraud.
When considering a forex broker, it’s crucial to conduct thorough research to ensure your investments are secure. One broker that has recently come into the spotlight is Jetafx. Here’s what you need to know about this relatively new player in the forex trading market.
Forex trading offers significant profit potential, but it's also fraught with risk. While many traders enter the forex market hoping for financial gain, not everyone succeeds. Many suffer substantial losses, often due to inadequate risk management. Thus, effective risk management is crucial for protecting investments and ensuring long-term success in forex trading.