DBG Markets: Market Report for Jan 20, 2025

Market Overview

This week is packed with critical data releases and announcements that could shape market movements. On Tuesday, Canadian CPI and the UK Unemployment Report are scheduled, followed by New Zealand CPI on Wednesday. Thursday will bring Canadian Retail Sales and US Unemployment Claims, while Friday will feature Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI reports from Europe, the UK, and the US, as well as the Bank of Japans (BOJ) outlook announcement.

GOLD - Gold prices have declined since last week but remain above the critical support level at 2689.197, which provides a chance for a reversal to higher trading levels. The RSI shows normalization with divergence in price, while the MACD reflects increased selling volume and momentum. Despite these signals, overall price action remains bullish as prices have yet to break below the previous swing low, which serves as a key support for the current market.

SILVER - Silver prices have dropped since last year, with resistance holding firm at 30.6675. Excess price movement above this resistance level has returned to the consolidation zone with significant momentum. Both the MACD and RSI indicate increased selling momentum and divergence. The consolidation zones lower boundary at 29.9000 is acting as a relevant support level and the key determinant of overall price momentum. As long as prices remain above this level, we maintain a bullish outlook.

DXY - As Trumps inauguration approaches, markets are bracing for a series of policy changes that could reshape the global economic order. While the dollar market is currently closed, announcements in the lead-up to the inauguration are expected to bring volatility. For now, dollar prices remain consolidated between two key zones. Both the RSI and MACD signal increased chances for a buying continuation, but we await further news to confirm any significant market movement.

GBPUSD - The Pound remains consolidated with minimal movement. The MACD and RSI reflect decreased selling momentum and volume, with the MACD suggesting a possible shift toward buying. However, fundamentals and broader price momentum still favor a bearish trend. The market is unlikely to sustain a meaningful reversal at this point.The Pound remains consolidated with minimal movement. The MACD and RSI reflect decreased selling momentum and volume, with the MACD suggesting a possible shift toward buying. However, fundamentals and broader price momentum still favor a bearish trend. The market is unlikely to sustain a meaningful reversal at this point.

AUDUSD - The Australian dollar has failed to break above the previous swing high after re-entering the consolidation zone. The MACD indicates a potential for buying continuation, but the RSI already shows overbought conditions, signaling a possible selloff from current levels. Fundamentally, risk-sensitive assets like the Aussie dollar are expected to face pressure as markets hedge against potential surprises from Trumps impending policy decisions. We remain cautious about this market's direction.

NZDUSD - The Kiwi dollar is showing increased selling pressure, with prices finding stability below the lower boundary of the consolidation zone. While the MACD hints at a possible continuation of the bullish movement, the RSI signals overbought conditions, indicating a reversal is likely. Price action suggests consolidation between the current low and 0.55662, but the overall structure leans toward further selling in the near term.

EURUSD - The Euro remains consolidated within a defined range, showing increased potential for a selling continuation. The MACD lacks conviction, failing to establish a clear direction, while the RSI signals overbought levels, increasing the likelihood of further declines. Overall, price action respects the market's bearish structure.

USDJPY - The Yen faces continued selling pressure as prices fail to reach the previous swing high. While both the MACD and RSI point to growing bullish momentum, overall price action continues to respect the bearish structure. The Yen‘s weakness stems from the Bank of Japan’s decision to delay a rate hike last week, with analysts speculating that March might be the next window for potential policy changes.

USDCHF - The Franc remains bullish, holding above the previous swing low. The MACD signals a strong potential for buying continuation, while the RSI highlights oversold conditions, supporting further bullish momentum. However, we await more price action before making definitive calls on the next move. For now, the overall market structure remains very bullish.

USDCAD - The Canadian dollar has broken above 1.44440, emphasizing the currencys underlying weakness. Divergence in the RSI suggests a possible reversal is underway before the market resumes its larger bullish trend. The MACD also indicates increased buying momentum at the current price level. Price action remains strongly bullish, with expectations of further gains after a brief correction.