简体中文
繁體中文
English
Pусский
日本語
ภาษาไทย
Tiếng Việt
Bahasa Indonesia
Español
हिन्दी
Filippiiniläinen
Français
Deutsch
Português
Türkçe
한국어
العربية
Abstract:After all, forex traders don't add technical indicators to their charts only to make them seem nicer. Traders are in the money-making industry!
Now for the fun part: how profitable is each technical indication by itself?
After all, forex traders don't add technical indicators to their charts only to make them seem nicer. Traders are in the money-making industry!
If these indicators produce indications that not transfer into a lucrative bottom line over time, they are just not the right choice for you!
We decided to backtest each technical indicator separately for the past 5 years in order to provide you with a comparison of their usefulness.
Backtesting entails comparing the parameters of indicators to last price behavior in the past.
In your future studies, you'll find out more about this. Take a look at the parameters we used for our backtest for now.
INDICATOR | PARAMETERS | RULES |
Bollinger Bands | (30,2,2) | When the daily closing price falls below the lower band, cover and go long. When the daily closing price crosses above the top band, cover and go short. |
MACD | (12,26,9) | When MACD1 (fast) crosses above MACD2, cover and go long (slow). When MACD1 falls below MACD2, cover and go short. |
Parabolic SAR | (.02,.02,.2) | Cover and go long when the daily closing price goes above ParSAR. When the daily closing price falls below ParSAR, cover and go short. |
Stochastic | (14,3,3) | When the Stoch percent rises above 20%, cover and go long. When the Stoch percent falls below a certain level, cover and go short. |
RSI | (9) | When the RSI rises above 30, cover and go long. When the RSI falls below 70, cover and sell. |
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo | (9,26,52,1) | When the conversion line crosses above the baseline, cover and go long. When the conversion line crosses below the base line, cover and go short. |
We tested each of the technical indicators separately on the daily time frame of EUR/USD during the last 5 years using these criteria.
We trade one lot (100,000 units) at a time, with no stop losses or take profit points in place.
Once a new signal emerges, we just cover and switch positions. This means that if we were long when the indicator told us to sell, we would cover and open a new position.
We also assumed we were well funded (like we were taught during our Leverage lesson) and began with a $100,000 hypothetical balance.
We included total pips secured/lost, as well as the maximum drawdown, in addition to the actual profit and loss of each method.
Let us just reiterate that we DO NOT RECOMMEND trading forex without a stop loss. This is purely for demonstration purposes! Now, let's look at the results of our backtest:
STRATEGY | NUMBER OF TRADES | P/L IN PIPS | P/L IN % | MAX DRAWDOWN |
Buy And Hold | 1 | -3,416.66 | -3.42 | 25.44 |
Bollinger Bands | 20 | -19,535.97 | -19.54 | 37.99 |
MACD | 110 | 3,937.67 | 3.94 | 27.55 |
Parabolic SAR | 128 | -9,746.29 | -9.75 | 21.96 |
Stochastic | 74 | -20,716.40 | -20.72 | 30.64 |
RSI | 8 | -18,716.69 | -18.72 | 34.57 |
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo | 53 | 30,341.22 | 30.34 | 19.51 |
The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator did the best on its own during the last five years, according to the statistics.
It made a $30,341 profit, or 30.35 percent profit. Over the course of five years, this equates to an annual growth rate of slightly over 6%!
Surprisingly, the remainder of the technical indicators performed far worse, with the Stochastic indicator returning a negative 20.72 percent.
Furthermore, all of the indicators resulted in significant drawdowns ranging from 20% to 30%.
But, this doesn't imply that the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indication is the best or that technical indicators in general are ineffective. Rather, this demonstrates that they aren't really useful on their own.
Consider all of the martial arts movies you saw as a kid. No one, with the exception of The Rock and the People's Elbow, depended on a single maneuver to defeat all of the evil guys. To get the Job done.The Rock employed a mix of movements.
The forex market happens to be analogues. It's an art form, and as traders, we must learn to use and mix the resources at our disposal in order to devise a method that works for us.
This leads us to our next lesson: combining all of these signs!
Disclaimer:
The views in this article only represent the author's personal views, and do not constitute investment advice on this platform. This platform does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information in the article, and will not be liable for any loss caused by the use of or reliance on the information in the article.
These champions have one thing in common: they not only work their butts off, but they also enjoy what they do.
"Patience is the key to everything," American comic Arnold H. Glasgow once quipped. The chicken is gotten by hatching the egg rather than crushing it."
Ask any Wall Street quant (the highly nerdy math and physics PhDs who build complicated algorithmic trading techniques) why there isn't a "holy grail" indicator, approach, or system that generates revenues on a regular basis.
We've designed the School of WikiFX as simple and enjoyable as possible to help you learn and comprehend the fundamental tools and best practices used by forex traders all over the world, but keep in mind that a tool or strategy is only as good as the person who uses it.