Sterling (GBP) Fundamental Outlook: Leaning Towards a Softer Brexit？

Sterling (GBP) Talking Points: Brexit

英镑（GBP）谈话要点：Brexit

• New cross-party alliance; no deal Brexit now highly unlikely

  新的交叉党联盟;没有交易英国脱欧现在极不可能

• A potential one-year Article 50. extension could see a second Brexit vote put to the public.

  潜在的为期一年的第50条延期可以看到第二次英国脱欧公投投票。

The DailyFX Q2 GBP Forecasts are available to download including our short- and medium-term look at Sterling.

可以下载DailyFX Q2英镑预测，包括我们对Sterling的短期和中期看法。

Fundamental Forecast for GBP: Neutral

英镑基本面预测：中性

UK Prime Minister Theresa May this week reached out to the leader of the Opposition Jeremy Corbyn in a renewed attempt to break the current Brexit deadlock. The cross-party talks were said to have been constructive but inconclusive but the olive branch from the PM while angering some of her Party is seen by many as finding a way to leave the EU, however ‘soft’ the plan is. This week also saw Parliament vote for a bill to stop the UK from leaving the EU without a deal although as yet this is not a legal position. And to end the week, UK PM May asked the EU for an extension to Article 50. until June 30 to help break the deadlock. In response, the EU is expected to turn down this request and instead offer the UK a one-year ‘flexible extension’ with the inclusion of a break clause if the UK ratifies a deal with the EU.

英国首相特蕾莎·梅本周向反对党领袖杰里米·科尔宾伸出援手，重新尝试打破目前脱欧的僵局。据说跨党派谈判具有建设性但没有结果，但是来自总理的橄榄枝虽然激怒了她的一些党，却被许多人视为找到离开欧盟的方式，但计划却“软”。本周还有议会投票通过一项法案，阻止英国在没有达成协议的情况下离开欧盟，尽管这还不是法律立场。为了结束这一周，英国首相梅尔要求欧盟延长第50条，直到6月30日，以帮助打破僵局。作为回应，如果英国批准与欧盟的协议，预计欧盟将拒绝这一请求，而是向英国提供为期一年的“灵活延期”，其中包含一项中断条款。

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The UK data calendar is quiet next week apart from Wednesday when trade balance data, industrial and manufacturing figures and the latest look at monthly and 3m/3m GDP are all released at 08:30 GMT. EURGBP traders will also be interested in the latest ECB monetary policy meeting on the same day and President Draghis press conference afterwards.

下周英国数据日历比较平静，除了周三贸易平衡数据，工业和制造业数据以及最新的月度和300万/ 300万GDP均在格林威治标准时间08:30公布。 EURGBP交易员也将对同一天的最新欧洲央行货币政策会议以及随后的总统Draghis新闻发布会感兴趣。

DailyFX Economic Calendar

DailyFX经济日历

GBPUSD Daily Price Chart (June 2018 – April 5, 2019)

GBPUSD每日价格走势图（2018年6月 - 2019年4月5日）

IG Client Sentiment data show 70.0% of traders are net-long GBPUSD. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggest that GBPUSD prices may fall. However, if we factor in recent daily and weekly positional changes, we get astronger GBPUSD bearish trading bias.

IG客户情绪数据显示，70.0％的交易者是净多头GBPUSD。我们通常采取逆向观点来看待人群情绪，而且交易商净多头表明英镑兑美元价格可能会下跌。然而，如果我们考虑最近的每日和每周位置变化，我们会得到更强的英镑兑美元看跌交易偏见。

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides, especially in times of volatility – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

交易者可能对我们的两个交易指南感兴趣，特别是在波动时期 - 成功交易者的特质和顶级交易课 - 虽然技术分析师可能对我们最新的Elliott Wave指南感兴趣。

--- Written by Nick Cawley, Analyst

---由分析师Nick Cawley撰写