Gold Price Technical Outlook: GLD Rallies from Key Chart Support

Gold Price Technical Talking Points:

黄金价格技术谈话要点：

- Gold prices have recovered from a late-Q1 sell-off that saw prices dip down to a key zone of chart support. This zone runs from the approximate 1275-1286 and has held three different support inflections already in 2019.

- 黄金价格从一季度末的抛售中恢复过来，价格下跌至图表支撑的关键区域。这个区域从大约1275-1286开始，并且在2019年已经有三种不同的支撑变形。

- Last month‘s support test in Gold led into a run of strength around the March FOMC rate decision; but bulls were unable to maintain the theme of strength and prices quickly pushed back to that key zone of chart support. Tomorrow’s economic calendar brings the ECB rate decision and FOMC Meeting Minutes, and this could carry a large bearing on which direction takes over in Gold prices. Below, I look at a case on either side of the matter.

- 上个月的黄金支撑测试导致了围绕该区域的强劲支撑。 3月FOMC利率决定;但多头无法维持强势主题，价格迅速回到图表支撑的关键区域。明天的经济日历将带来欧洲央行利率决定和FOMC会议纪要，这可能会对黄金价格的走向产生重大影响。下面，我将看一下案件的任何一个案例。

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Do you want to see how retail traders are currently trading Gold prices？ Check out our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

您想了解零售交易商目前如何交易黄金价格吗？查看我们的IG客户情绪指标。

Gold Prices Rally from 2019 Chart Support

2019年黄金价格拉升图表支持

Gold prices have caught a bid to move back above the psychological 1300 level; and this comes after Gold prices spent more than a week building a base of support at a key zone on the chart. This zone of support runs from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the August, 2018 - February, 2019 bullish move; and extends up to 1285.90 which is the 61.8% retracement of the 2013-2015 major move.

黄金价格已收回回升价高于心理1300水平;这是在黄金价格花了一周多的时间在图表的关键区域建立支撑基础之后。该支撑区域来自2018年8月至2019年2月看涨的38.2％斐波那契回撤位;并且延伸至1285.90，这是2013-2015重大举措的61.8％回撤。

This same support zone has already come into play a few times already in 2019 trade; helping to set higher-low support in early-January before Gold prices rallied up to a fresh 10-month high. This zone came back into play in early-March and was key in a bullish breakout strategy that was setting up ahead of the FOMC rate decision. And now after the April test, this zone has held three different support inflections in Gold prices for 2019.

这个相同的支撑区已经在2019年的交易中已经发挥了几次;帮助在1月初创下更高的低位支撑，之后黄金价格上涨至新的10个月高点。该区域在3月初恢复发挥作用，并且是在FOMC利率决策之前建立的看涨突破策略的关键。现在经过4月的测试，他的区域在2019年的黄金价格中持有三种不同的支撑位。

Gold Price Daily Chart

黄金价格每日图表

Chart prepared by James Stanley

Chart詹姆斯·斯坦利准备

Gold Testing Potential Resistance Zone

黄金测试潜在阻力区

At this point, Gold price action is trading in a zone of prior support taken from a couple of other Fibonacci levels. The 23.6% retracement of the same August, 2019 – February, 2019 run exists at 1302.76, and at 1310.53 is the 76.4% retracement of the 2014-2015 major move. This zone was a key component of the breakout strategy investigated in Gold ahead of the March FOMC rate decision. That setup played out in a fairly-clean manner in the immediate aftermath of the FOMC, as prices quickly ran up to the initial target around 1319.91. But – bulls couldnt maintain and prices soon reverted right back to that longer-term support from 1275-1286.

此时，黄金价格行动正处于先前支撑区域内交易取自其他几个斐波那契水平。 2019年8月，2019年2月的23.6％回撤位于1302.76，而2014 - 2015年的主要走势为76.4％的回调位于1310.53。在3月FOMC利率决定之前，该区域是Gold调查突破策略的关键组成部分。由于价格迅速上涨至1319.91附近的初始目标，因此该结构在FOMC的紧接其后立即以相当干净的方式发挥作用。但是 - 多头无法维持，价格很快就会恢复到1275-1286的长期支撑位。

The March swing high was a lower-high from the February move, and this brings the sustainability of the longer-term theme of strength in Gold prices into question.

3月份的涨幅从2月份的走势开始走低，这使黄金价格长期主题的可持续性受到质疑。

Gold Price Four-Hour Chart

黄金价格四小时图表

Chart prepared by James Stanley

詹姆斯·斯坦利编制的图表

Will Gold Rally Break or Fold Ahead of ECB, FOMC Meeting Minutes？

欧洲央行，FOMC会议纪要之前黄金价格会突破还是反弹？

Last months flare of strength in Gold prices started after the ECB rate decision in the early-portion of the month. And that theme ran in a clean manner until just after the FOMC rate decision, at which point the US Dollar ran into a big area of support and started to rally. That strength in the US Dollar through the Q1 open and into the Q2 close helped to push Gold prices back-down to 2019 support.

上个月欧洲央行在本月初的利率决定后开始出现黄金价格上涨。在FOMC利率决定之后，这个主题以干净的方式运行，此时美元进入了一个大的支撑区域并开始反弹。在第一季度开盘和第二季度收盘时，美元的强势有助于推动黄金价格回落至2019年的支撑位。

But now that a dovish Fed is built into expectations, the big question is whether Gold bulls can continue to drive-higher on the charts; and with some context, taking the recent show of lower-high resistance combined with the prior bullish move, and there would be a bull pennant formation that traders can work with. This can, at the very least, provide an element of directional bias to the matter. But – this would also denote the importance of timing as prices are currently trading within a realm of congestion thats been lackluster for Gold traders of recent.

但现在温和的美联储基于预期，最大的问题是黄金多头是否可以继续在图表上走高;并且在一些背景下，最近显示出低位阻力位与先前的看涨走势相结合，并且交易者可以使用牛市三角旗形态。这至少可以为物质提供方向偏差的因素。但是 - 这也表明时机的重要性，因为价格目前在最近的黄金交易商一直处于低迷状态的交易范围内交易。

Gold Price Daily Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

James Stanley编制的图表

Gold Price Trading Strategy

黄金价格交易策略

Given the current backdrop, traders could investigate bullish strategies should another support inflection come into play off of the zone looked at above that runs from 1275-1286. Alternatively, should prices break-out of the bull pennant, that could re-open the door to bullish continuation strategies, at which point buyers could look to re-orient the current zone of short-term resistance as follow-through support. This runs from the 1302-1310 zone on the chart.

鉴于目前的背景，交易者可以调查看涨策略，如果另一个支撑拐点在1275-1286之上的区域上方发挥作用。或者，如果价格突破牛市，可能会重新打开看涨延续策略的大门，此时买家可能会将目前的短期阻力区域重新定位为后续支撑。这是从图表上的1302-1310区域开始的。

On the other side of Gold prices: The US Dollar is continuing to build an ascending triangle formation, which will often be approached in a bullish manner. As discussed in last Thursdays webinar, this formation may take some time to fill-in, especially when considering possible drivers to create such a scenario. But – if Gold prices break below the zone of 2019 support, that would likely be a related theme to a US Dollar bullish breakout, and this could soon re-open the door to bearish trend strategies in Gold. Downside targets could be set towards 1260 and then the confluent zone around the 1250 psychological level.

在黄金价格的另一边：美元继续建立一个上升的三角形形态，通常会接近以看涨的方式。正如上周四网络研讨会所讨论的那样，这种形式可能需要一些时间来填补，特别是考虑到可能的驱动因素来创建这样的场景。但是 - 如果黄金价格跌破2019年支撑区域，这可能是美元看涨突破的一个相关主题，这可能很快重新打开黄金看跌趋势策略的大门。下行目标可以设定为1260，然后是1250心理水平附近的融合区。

Gold Price Eight-Hour Chart

黄金价格八小时图表

Chart prepared by James Stanley

James编写的图表Stanley

The Gold Backdrop via the GLD ETF

通过GLD ETF的黄金背景

For American traders without access to CFD‘s, the GLD Exchange Traded Fund is a popular way of accessing exposure into Gold. Below, I’ve incorporated the above Fibonacci retracements from the Gold CFD charts looked at above into the GLD ETF, and this shows a fairly-clear set of lines in the sand for both support and resistance. The support zone in GLD that‘s continued to hold the 2019 lows runs from 120.91-121.06, while the resistance side of the equation shows from 123.29-123.41, which is currently holding today’s highs. Given the descending trend-line, and the fact that March produced a lower-high, traders would likely want to let the level at 125.11 get tested through before re-opening the door to topside trend continuation scenarios. At that point, current resistance around 123.29-123.41 could be re-purposed as higher-low support.

对于无法获得差价合约的美国交易者，GLD交易所交易基金是获得黄金暴露的一种流行方式。下面，我将上面看到的黄金CFD图表中的上述斐波纳契回撤结合到GLD ETF中，这显示了在支撑和阻力方面的一系列相当清晰的线条。继续保持2019年低点的GLD支撑区域从120.91-121.06开始，而等式的阻力位显示从123.29-123.41，目前持有今天的高点。鉴于下行趋势线，以及事实上，3月产出了一个较低的高点，交易者可能希望让125.11的水平在重新开启上行趋势延续之前通过测试场景。此时，目前阻力位在123.29-123.41附近可能会被重新定位为高位低位支撑。

GLD Daily Price Chart

GLD每日价格走势图

Chart prepared by James Stanley

James Stanley编制的图表

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您是否正在寻找长期分析美元？我们对第一季度的DailyFX预测有一个针对每种主要货币的部分，我们还提供了大量的美元对资源，如欧元/美元，英镑/美元，美元/日元，澳元/美元。交易者还可以通过我们的IG客户情绪指标保持近期定位。