Oil Price Forecast: Crude Could Crumble if Growth Concerns Catch Fire Again

CRUDE OIL PRICE FORECAST – TALKING POINTS:

原油价格预测 - 谈话要点：

• Crude oil has climbed nearly 40 percent so far this year in response OPEC slashing production to restore supply and demand imbalances with further cuts still on the table

  原油有为应对石油输出国组织削减产量以恢复供需失衡以及进一步削减措施，今年迄今为止攀升近40％

• Downward revisions to global economic growth forecasts continue to mount, however, which threatens bullish market sentiment and demand for crude oil

  向全球下调然而，经济增长预测继续上升，这威胁到市场情绪和原油需求看涨

• Take a look at this article on How to Trade Crude Oil or check out these Top Crude Oil Facts to expand your trading knowledge

  看看这篇关于如何交易原油的文章加油或查看这些顶级原油事实以扩大您的交易知识

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• Download the DailyFX Q2 Oil Forecast for our comprehensive outlook

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Looking for a technical perspective on Crude Oil？ Check out the Weekly Crude Technical Forecast.

寻找关于原油的技术观点？查看每周原油技术预测。

Crude oil continued its ascent this past week with prices gaining another 0.8 percent. Turmoil in Libya and ongoing tension in Venezuela likely weighed positively on crude seeing that the two countries are major oil exporters. Conflict between the US and Iran could have also helped boost oil prices considering the risk of President Trump extending Iranian restrictions.

原油o上周继续上涨，价格再次上涨0.8％。利比亚的动荡局势以及委内瑞拉持续的紧张局势可能会对原油产生积极影响，因为两国都是主要的石油出口国。考虑到特朗普总统延长伊朗限制的风险，美国和伊朗之间的冲突也可能有助于提振油价。

CRUDE OIL PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (DECEMBER 28, 2018 TO APRIL 12, 2019)

原油价格表：每日时间框架（2018年12月28日至2019年4月12日）

The latest IEA report indicated a hefty drop in oil inventories over February which is likely another factor contributing to the climb in oil prices. Yet, majority of the aforementioned information is backward-looking or already baked into current prices.

最新的IEA报告显示2月份石油库存大幅下降，这可能是导致油价攀升的另一个因素。然而，上述大部分信息都具有后瞻性或已经融入当前价格。

On a less-brighter note, the World Trade Organization recently slashed its estimates for 2019 economic growth by a staggering 1.1 percent. Concerns over a further-deteriorating economy were subsequently echoed by the International Monetary Fund in its updated World Economic Outlook and Global Financial Stability Reports which struck a cautionary tone and cut GDP growth expectations from 3.5 percent to 3.3 percent.

世界贸易组织最近大幅削减了对2019年经济增长的估计以惊人的1.1 prcent。国际货币基金组织在其最新的“世界经济展望”和“全球金融稳定报告”中对国际货币基金组织进一步恶化的担忧得到了回应，该报告采取了谨慎的态度，并将GDP增长预期从3.5％下调至3.3％。

Although, these developments regarding slower global growth seem to have gone unnoticed by risk assets and the oil market – eerily as it did at the end of 2018 prior to the widespread selloff. Moreover, news out that Russia has shied away from committing to extend oil production cuts along with OPEC could also weigh adversely on crude prices if this risk materializes.

尽管有关全球增长放缓的这些发展似乎没有被风险资产和石油市场所忽视 - 与2018年底广泛抛售之前的情况一样令人毛骨悚然。此外，有消息称俄罗斯不愿承诺与石油输出国组织一道延长石油减产量，如果这种风险成为现实，也会对原油价格产生负面影响。

That being said, the risk-reward proposition for oil bulls has grown increasingly less attractive with crude now eclipsing $63/bbl. Crude oil outlook remains neutral, however, due to upcoming seasonality effects that typically boosts oil prices in addition to uncertainty surrounding further OPEC supply cuts.

话虽如此，风险石油多头的向前主张越来越没有吸引力，原油现在已经超过63美元/桶。然而，由于即将出现的季节性影响，除了围绕欧佩克进一步削减供应的不确定性之外，原油价格通常会提振油价。

Other Weekly Fundemental Forecasts:

其他每周财务预测：

Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar Outlook Bearish on RBA. AUDUSD Eyes China Q1 GDP

澳元预测 - 澳元前景看好澳联储。澳元兑美元关注中国第一季度GDP