Crude Oil Prices Stalling Ahead of US Energy Earnings and GDP Data

Oil Fundamental Forecast: Neutral

石油基本面预测：中性

• Crude oil prices stalled with S&P 500, trading in a narrow range on mixed news

  标准普尔500指数原油价格停滞不前混合新闻的窄幅区间

• The commodity awaits the US Energy Security Conference, US-Japan trade talks

  商品等待美国能源安全会议，美日贸易谈判

• Earnings from Chevron and Exxon Mobil due. Oil eyes US first quarter GDP too

  Chevron和Exxon Mobil的收益到期。石油关注美国第一季度GDP

Trade all the major global economic data live and interactive at the DailyFX Webinars. Wed love to have you along.

在DailyFX网络研讨会上实时交互所有主要的全球经济数据。周三喜欢和你在一起。

Oil Weekly Wrap

石油周刊包裹

Crude oil prices spent most of last week consolidating between a narrow range. The sentiment-linked commodity followed a similar performance on Wall Street where the S&P 500 also appeared to stall in its dominant uptrend since late December. The rather tepid performance in both of them, especially before the Good Friday holiday, reflected a mixed start to US earnings as the health-care sector dragged down stocks.

上周大部分原油价格在一个窄幅区间内盘整。与情绪相关的商品在华尔街也有类似的表现，标准普尔500指数自12月下旬以来似乎也停滞在其主导的上升趋势中。两者都表现得相当温和，特别是在耶稣受难节假期之前，由于医疗保健行业拖累股市，美国收益开局不一。

Efforts from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) continues to support the commodity on the sidelines. Saudi Arabia output, a key member, declined to 10.14m barrels per day (b/d) in February as petroleum exports softened to 6.98m b/d. On the chart below, I have created a visualization of oils rise alongside the S&P 500 and declines in OPEC production.

本组织的努力石油输出国组织（欧佩克）继续支持该商品持观望态度。由于石油出口量减少至698万桶/日，沙特阿拉伯产量是主要成员，2月份日产量下降至每日1014万桶（b / d）。在下面的图表中，我创建了标准普尔500指数与油价上涨相关的可视化图表以及欧佩克产量的下降。

{8}

Oil Week Ahead

{8}

With that in mind, crude oil prices will be looking to either extend their dominant downtrend or risk stalling in the near-term. Fundamentals that are weighing against the commodity include solid US production and concerns that major central banks have brought about the global growth outlook. Better-than-expected Chinese first quarter GDP failed to inspire much market confidence last week.

考虑到这一点，原油价格将要么延续其主导下行趋势，要么在近期内停滞不前。对商品构成压力的基本面包括稳健的美国产量以及主要央行对全球经济增长前景的担忧。好于预期的中国第一季度GDP未能在上周激发市场信心。

Speaking of trade, Japan‘s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will visit the White House for talks with US President Donald Trump. At the same time, Mr Trump seems to be eager to bring up tariff threats against the European Union, risking another front on the trade war. If talks between the US and Japan head in a similar direction, that could bode ill for oil. Japan’s Economy Minister noted the importance of an early accord.

谈到贸易，日本首相安倍晋三将访问白宫与美国总统唐纳德会谈王牌。与此同时，特朗普似乎急于提出对欧盟的关税威胁，从而冒着贸易战的另一个阵线。如果美国和日本之间的谈判朝着类似的方向前进，那么这对石油来说可能是不利的。日本经济部长指出早期协议的重要性。

Other items on the docket for oil prices include the ongoing US earnings season. Next week contains those from Chevron and Exxon Mobil, important parts of the energy sector. Do also keep an eye on the weekly official DOE inventory figures and how those compare to API estimates. US first quarter GDP is also a big item, especially for risk trends and the sentiment-linked commodity.

油价的其他项目包括持续的美国收益季节。下周包括来自雪佛龙和埃克森美孚的能源部门的重要部分。还要关注每周官方DOE库存数据以及与API估算值的比较。美国第一季度GDP也是一个很大的项目，尤其是风险趋势和与情绪相关的商品。

Other Weekly Fundamental Forecast:

其他每周基本预测：

Australian Dollar Forecast: Australian Dollar Faces The Big One As Official CPI Numbers Loom

澳大利亚元预测：澳大利亚元正面临官方消费物价指数的重要因素