US Dollar Fell on Mixed GDP, Crude Oil Prices at Uptrend Support

Asia Pacific Market Open Talking Points

亚太市场公开谈话要点

• US Dollar falls as GDP data fuels Fed rate cut bets, S&P 500 and NZD gain

  随着美国国内生产总值数据推动美联储降息，美元下跌投注，标准普尔500指数和新西兰元收益

• Crude oil drop to uptrend support as Trump pressures OPEC to lower prices

  由于特朗普向欧佩克施压以降低价格，原油价格下跌至支撑位上升

• Markets looking to an illiquid start, Japanese stocks offline for Golden Week

  市场看起来流动性不足，日本股市离黄金周离线

Trade all the major global economic data live as it populates in the economic calendar and follow the live coverage for key events listed in the DailyFX Webinars. Wed love to have you along.

交易所有主要的全球经济数据，因为它填写在经济日历中，并遵循DailyFX网络研讨会中列出的关键事件的实时报道。周三喜欢和你在一起。

FX News Friday

外汇新闻周五

The US Dollar declined on Friday, but it still managed to cap a solid week that had a few bouts of risk aversion. Most of its weakness occurred after a mixed first quarter US GDP report. While growth surprised to the upside (3.2% versus 2.3% expected), that was undermined by weakness in personal consumption (1.2% versus 2.5% prior). The latter accounts for about 70% of overall GDP.

美元周五下跌，但仍然成功上涨有一些风险规避的坚实一周。其大部分疲软发生在美国第一季度GDP报告好坏参半之后。虽然增长意外上升（3.2％对比预期的2.3％），但个人消费疲软（1.2％对比之前为2.5％）则受到了影响。后者占GDP总量的70％左右。

An increase in inventories, typically a volatile component, contributed to a decent chunk of growth. That said, US front-end government bond yields declined which signaled more Fed rate cut bets. Fed funds futures are now pricing in about a 66% chance of a cut by the end of this year, up from 61% Thursday. By the end of the day, the S&P 500 rose 0.47% as the pro-risk Australian and New Zealand Dollars climbed.

库存增加，通常是一个不稳定因素，促成了相当大的增长。也就是说，美国前端政府债券收益率下降，这标志着美联储降息更多。联邦基金期货现在定价在今年年底前降低66％的可能性，高于周四的61％。截至当天结束时，标准普尔500指数上涨0.47％，因为有风险的澳大利亚和新西兰元攀升。

But it was not without smooth sailing. After the GDP report, US President Donald Trump took another jab at getting OPEC to increase oil output. This sent the commodity lower in its worst day in over four months and concluding the most disappointing week in two months. As a result, energy shares weakened and deprived the S&P 500 of its full potential for the day.

但并非没有顺利航行。国内生产总值报告发布后，美国总统唐纳德特朗普又一次试图让石油输出国组织增加石油产量。这使得商品在四个多月的最糟糕的一天中走低，并在两个月内结束了最令人失望的一周。因此，能源股减弱并剥夺了标准普尔500指数当天的全部潜力。

Crude Oil Technical Analysis

原油技术分析

Looking at the daily chart, crude oil closed right on the rising support line from late December. Its recent drop occurred alongside negative RSI divergence which was hinting of a top to come. Confirming a close under the trend line opens the door to a new dominant downtrend. On the other hand, resuming the uptrend entails clearing resistance above 66.58.

从日线图看，原油在12月底的支撑线上正好收盘。最近的下跌发生在RSI负背离之下，暗示了顶部来。在趋势线下确认收盘打开通向新的主导下行趋势的大门。另一方面，恢复上行趋势需要清除阻力位66.58以上。

Crude Oil Daily Chart

原油每日走势图

Chart Created in TradingView

Chart在TradingView中创建

Mondays Asia Pacific Trading Session

周一的亚太交易时段

As we begin a loaded week with critical US economic event risk, Mondays Asia Pacific session is notably lacking data. As such, this places the focus on risk trends. Japanese markets are offline for the Golden Week holiday which brings with it lower-than-usual levels of liquidity which may increase volatility on surprise announcements. If other regional bourses follow Wall Street higher, the anti-risk Yen may weaken.

当我们开始一个带有严重的美国经济事件风险的周末时，周一的亚太地区会议缺乏数据。因此，这将重点放在风险趋势上。黄金周假期日本市场处于脱机状态，这带来了低于通常的流动性水平，这可能会增加意外公告的波动性。如果其他区域交易所跟随华尔街走高，那么抗风险日元可能会走弱。