Next recession: Why the stock and bond markets will do the unthinkable

{1} 法国兴业银行全球策略师艾伯特•爱德华兹表示，他相信自20世纪90年代以来他所倡导的冰河时代理论很快就会出现美国。他的理论规定，通货紧缩浪潮将使长期债券收益率趋于零，并使股市同步下跌。在最近给客户的一份报告中，爱德华兹解释了为什么他不会预见到通胀会在短期内出现上涨，以及下一次经济衰退对股票和债券的影响。访问Business Insider的主页以获取更多故事。需要一定品牌的坚持才能保持20年的相同预测和计数。只需要知道法国兴业银行全球策略师艾伯特爱德华兹，他因看空他的看法和长期存在的冰而闻名全球经济的年龄预测。在他最新的信件中，爱德华兹说他“比以往任何时候都更有信心”，他长期吹捧的冰河时代理论的下一阶段将很快降临美国。他在20世纪90年代制定的论文规定，通货紧缩将影响美国和欧洲市场，使长期债券收益率趋于零，并引发股价崩盘。这种情况类似于日本在1980年代后期信贷泡沫破灭后发生的情况。为了证明他的论文已经成立，爱德华兹指出了最近在一些欧洲国家出现的负10年期债券利率。包括德国。他现在警告美国投资者应该支持同样的股票以及相应的股市下跌。爱德华兹周二在一份报告中说：“大多数评论家现在接受欧洲大陆的日本化已经发生，但他们无法想象美国会发生同样的事情。”他继续说道：“我最大的信念是美国10年期债券收益率将在下一次经济衰退期间与日本和德国的收益率收敛在1％左右（美国30年期国债收益率将降至零或以下），市场将因恐慌性通货紧缩而陷入恐慌。”不知道爱德华兹是否害羞逆势而上。即使他要求美国国债收益率大幅下挫，包括摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙和DoubleLine Capital首席执行官杰弗里·冈德拉赫在内的华尔街重量级人物也反其道远：利率突然上升。更多：从杰米·戴蒙到杰夫·冈德拉赫的华尔街巨头警告波动性飙升 - 而10年来最糟糕的债券市场拍卖刚刚提升了威胁水平对于爱德华兹来说，其中一个导致这种飙升的因素 - 通货膨胀 - 根本无处可寻，而美联储则是不担心即将回归。此外，工资增长似乎结束了去年记录的突破性增长，油价对总体通胀的影响较小。随着所谓的冰河时代到来的气候，爱德华兹看到美国股市很快跟随日本10根据他们的历史关系，年收益率下降。“我最喜欢的一个图表显示日本在相对于10年期债券的股票评级方面领先于美国，”爱德华兹说。 “我相信股票与债券（在下面的圆圈中）的流行是暂时的。”在他看来，股市的下跌将类似于21世纪初的网络泡沫。他说，在下一次经济衰退到来之际，估值过高的成长型公司将“暴露”与全球经济的奇思妙想。 “那些认为在下一次经济衰退中更多QE（或者确实是MMT /直升机资金等）可以使美国股票估值不会因债券相对崩溃的人在我看来生活在一种迷茫的乐观状态，”爱德华兹说。 p> {1}{0}{1}

Albert Edwards, the global strategist at Societe Generale, says he is convinced that the Ice Age theory he has promoted since the 1990s will soon hit the US. His theory stipulates that a wave of deflation would pummel long-term bond yields towards zero and send stocks tumbling in tandem. In a recent note to clients, Edwards explained why he doesn't foresee a jump in inflation any time soon, and the impact that the next recession would have on stocks and bonds. Visit Business Insider's homepage for more stories.It takes a certain brand of persistence to maintain the same prediction for two decades and counting.Just ask Albert Edwards, a global strategist at Societe Generale, who is well known for his bearish views and his longstanding Ice Age prediction for the global economy. In his latest missive, Edwards says he's “more confident than ever” that the next phase of his long-touted Ice Age theory will soon befall the US. His thesis, formulated in the 1990s, stipulates that deflation will grip US and European markets, sending long-term bond yields towards zero and triggering the collapse of stock prices. This scenario would be similar to what happened in Japan after the country's credit bubble burst in the late 1980s.For proof that his thesis is already taking hold, Edwards points to the negative 10-year-bond rates that were recently seen in some European countries including Germany. He's now warning that US investors should brace for the same, as well as a corresponding slump in stocks. “Most commentators now accept the Japanification of mainland Europe has occurred, but they just cannot conceive that the same thing might happen with the US,” Edwards said in a note on Tuesday.He continued: “My biggest conviction call is that US 10y bond yields will converge with Japanese and German yields in the next recession at around minus 1% (and US 30y year yields will fall to zero or below) and that markets will panic as outright deflation takes an icy grip.” Edwards is not known to be shy about taking wildly contrarian views. Even as he calls for sharply lower US Treasury yields, Wall Street heavyweights including JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon and DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach are vocal about the opposite: a sudden jump in interest rates.Read more: Wall Street titans from Jamie Dimon to Jeff Gundlach are warning about a spike in volatility — and the worst bond-market auction in 10 years just raised the threat levelFor Edwards, one of the ingredients that would trigger such a spike — inflation — is simply nowhere to be found, and the Federal Reserve is not worried about its imminent return. Moreover, wage growth appears to have ended the breakneck increases it recorded last year, and oil prices are having a muted effect on headline inflation.With the climate for the so-called Ice Age in place, Edwards sees US stocks soon following the Japanese 10-year yield lower, based on their historical relationship.“One of my favorite charts shows Japan leading the US in terms of the equity de-rating relative to 10y bonds,” Edwards said. “I believe the pop in equities vs bonds (in the circle below) is temporary.”In his view, the slump in stocks will resemble the dotcom bust of the early 2000s. Growth companies with lofty valuations will be “exposed” as deeply tied to the whims of the global economy when the next recession hits, he said. “Those who believe that in the next recession more QE (or indeed MMT/helicopter money, etc.) can keep US equity valuations from collapsing relative to bonds are living in a state of deluded optimism in my opinion,” Edwards said.

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