Gold Price Explodes to Fresh Yearly Highs - Levels to Know

Gold Price Talking Points:

黄金价格谈话要点：

• Gold prices have been on the move over the past two weeks as expectations for rate cuts from the FOMC have gotten priced-in. But this may not be just a near-term stimuli, as Gold prices were setting the stage for a significant breakout coming into last month.

  过去两年黄金价格一路走高因为对联邦公开市场委员会降息的预期得到了定价。但这可能不仅仅是近期的刺激因素，因为黄金价格正在为上个月的重大突破创造条件。

• Gold prices hit a fresh yearly high earlier this morning, finding a bit of resistance off of a big batch of prior swing highs that I had previously called ‘the danger zone.’

  黄金价格今天早上早些时候触及一个新的年度高点，从我之前称之为“危险区域”的大量先前摆动高点中找到一点阻力。

Gold Prices to Fresh Yearly Highs

黄金价格到新的年度高点

Its been a brisk month of June already for Gold prices. After spending much of the prior three months in varying forms of consolidation, the past two weeks have seen a significant topside ramp develop as a number of macro themes have moved into the spotlight.

6月份金价一直活跃。在前三个月大部分时间用于不同形式的整合之后，过去两周出现了显着的上升趋势，因为许多宏观主题已经成为人们关注的焦点。

Last week, I had looked at support potential in Gold prices, taken from around the 1319.91 Fibonacci level. This is the 14.4% retracement of the same major move from which the 38.2% marker helped to set pre-breakout support around the 1275 handle. The 14.4% retracement came into play again early this week, and the bounce from that level has now extended up to fresh yearly highs, finding sellers in the ‘danger zone’ that was looked at on Tuesday.

上周，我曾考虑黄金价格的支撑潜力，取自1319.91斐波那契水平。这是同一主要走势的14.4％回撤位，38.2％指标有助于在1275手柄附近设定突破前支撑位。本周早些时候，14.4％的回撤再次发挥作用，从该水平的反弹现在已经扩大到新的年度高点，在周二看到的“危险区域”中找到了卖家。

{8}

Gold Price Eight-Hour Chart

{8}

Gold Price Breakout – Is Now the Time for Fresh Five-Year-Highs？

黄金价格突破 - 现在是新的五年高点的时间？

Given the excitement on Gold charts, and rightfully traders have started to look at the bigger picture. As discussed on Tuesday, Gold prices are nearing a long-term zone of resistance that lurks just above current price action, and this is a zone thats turned around multiple advances in the recent past. A similar theme of strength had shown in Gold prices from July to September of 2017; and another from December 2017 to January 2018. Each of those advances was decidedly one-sided, but both failed to push through this key zone on the chart.

鉴于这种兴奋在黄金图表上，正确的交易者开始关注更大的图景。正如周二所讨论的那样，黄金价格接近一个潜在的长期阻力区域，潜伏在当前的价格行动之上，而且这个区域在最近的转变中扭转了多个进展。 2017年7月至9月的黄金价格也出现了类似的强势主题;从2017年12月到2018年1月，这些进展中的每一项都显然是片面的，但都未能在图表上突破这一关键区域。

The operable question right now is whether ‘this time is different？’ And to seasoned traders, thats often a phrase of folly. But it does highlight the inherent danger of chasing a well-developed move as a long-term zone of resistance has just come back into play.

现在可操作的问题是“这个时间是否不同？”对于经验丰富的交易员来说，这通常是愚蠢的一句话。但它确实强调了追逐一个发展良好的举动的内在危险，因为长期的抵抗区刚刚重新发挥作用。

Gold Price Weekly Chart

黄金价格周报图

Gold Prices React to Shifting Rate Paradigm – But Will the Fed Deliver？

黄金价格对转移率范式作出反应 - 但是美联储会交付吗？

One of the key components of this current topside run in Gold prices has been a shifting backdrop around rate expectation in the US. As the Fed remained hawkish through much of last year, Gold prices tanked from April to August, finally finding a bit of support around the 1160 level. But as pressure began to show in risk markets throughout Q4, expectations for Fed tightening diminished, and bulls came back in to push the bid in Gold. That theme ran into the month of February when digestion began to show up; and price action put in a 38.2% retracement of that prior bullish move, bringing into play the support level two weeks ago at 1275.15.

其中一个关键目前黄金价格上涨的成分一直是美国利率预期的变化背景。由于美联储在去年的大部分时间都保持强硬态度，黄金价格在4月至8月期间大幅下挫，最终在1160水平附近获得了一些支撑。但随着整个第四季度风险市场的压力开始显现，美联储收紧货币政策的预期减弱，多头回升以推动黄金收购。这个主题一直持续到二月，消化开始出现;并且价格行动在之前看涨的38.2％的回撤中，在两周前的1275.15处发挥支撑位。

{16}

Gold Price Daily Chart

{16}

Gold Price Strategy Moving Forward

黄金价格策略向前推进

At this point, pushing the bid on Gold appears to be aligned with anticipation of a very dovish twist at the Federal Reserve for next week‘s rate decision. Rates markets are anticipating three cuts by the end of the year, with the next move being a 25 basis point cut that’s expected at the July meeting. So, the primary focus around this upcoming FOMC rate decision will be on the dot plot matrix, and just how dovish the Fed might go in response to this recent flicker of risk aversion.

此时，对黄金的出价似乎与美联储下周非常温和的预期一致利率决定。利率市场预计到今年年底将有三次降息，下一步将在7月会议上下调25个基点。因此，围绕即将公布的FOMC利率决定的主要焦点将放在点图矩阵上，以及美联储对最近风险厌恶情绪的反应可能会有多么温和。

The Fed may have their work cut out for them at Wednesday‘s rate decision. While economic data has taken a negative tone of late, inflation remains very near the bank’s 2% goal and this mornings retail sales data was rather strong. And while this backdrop, particularly if focusing on the dual-mandate, may be ripe for keeping rates on hold, it does make for a more difficult case to justify a full-on rate cut regime.

美联储可能会在周三的利率决定中为他们削减工作。尽管经济数据最近采取负面态度，但通胀仍然非常接近该银行2％的目标，今天早上的零售销售数据相当强劲。虽然这种背景，特别是如果专注于双重任务，可能已经成熟，可以保持利率不变，但这确实会使一个更加困难的案例证明全面降息制度的合理性。

{20}

This could mesh well with the current backdrop in Gold prices. The bullish move is stretched by a number of metrics, but that longer-term zone of resistance could soon be taken-out when the Fed does eventually deliver. This may be more probabilistic at their next rate decision, however, taking place in late-July. For next week, this places emphasis on support potential in Gold prices, and that same 1319.91 level could remain as interesting, with the 23.6% marker of that same major move, taken from around 1302 as another potential support point. That price remains as interesting as it helped to provide a very clear swing-high in mid-May and, as yet, hasnt been tested for higher-low support since the bullish breakout began two weeks ago.

{20}{21}

Gold Price Four-Hour Chart

{21}

Chart prepared by James Stanley

James Stanley编制的图表