Top 5 Events: May UK Inflation Report & GBPUSD Price Forecast

UK Inflation Talking Points:

英国通货膨胀谈话要点：

• The May UK inflation report (consumer price index) is due on Wednesday, May 22 at 08:30 GMT.

  5月英国通胀报告（消费者价格指数）是将于5月22日星期三格林威治标准时间08:30公布。

• With oil prices falling more than 20% from their 2019 highs, measures of inflation are being pulled lower across the developed world – the UK included.

  随着油价从2019年的高点下跌超过20％，通胀指标正在下降包括英国在内的发达国家股价走低。

• Retail traders are net-long GBPUSD and getting longer, giving us a further bearish GBPUSD trading bias.

  零售交易商持有英镑兑美元的净多头并且持续走强，让我们进一步看跌英镑兑美元的交易偏见。

Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below.

周一美国东部夏令时间7:30 /格林尼治标准时间11点30分加入我的FX周向网络研讨会，我们将讨论未来几天的顶级事件风险以及围绕下列事件进行外汇市场交易的策略。

06/19 WEDNESDAY | 08:30 GMT | GBP Consumer Price Index (MAY)

06/19 WEDNESDAY |格林尼治标准时间08:30 |英镑消费者价格指数（5月）

With oil prices falling more than 20% from their 2019 highs, measures of inflation are being pulled lower across the developed world – and the UK should not be immune from this emerging trend of disinflationary pressures. According to a Bloomberg News survey, the forthcoming May UK inflation report is due to show headline inflation in at 2% from 2.1% (y/y), while the monthly reading is due in a 0.3% from 0.6%. Core CPI is expected to have eased to 1.7% from 1.8% (y/y).

随着油价从2019年的高点下跌超过20％，发达国家的通胀指标正在降低 - 英国不应该免受这种新的通货紧缩压力的影响。根据彭博社的一项调查显示，即将公布的5月英国通胀报告将显示整体通胀率从2.1％（同比）下降2％，而月度数据则从0.6％下降0.3％。预计核心CPI将从1.8％（同比）下降至1.7％。

For any other currency, an inflation report just days ahead of a central bank decision would typically generate a good deal of interest from market participants. But for the British Pound mired by the Brexit saga, the Bank of England has been neutered: so long as the Brexit negotiations are in the works, the BOE wont act on interest rates. Considering this reality, any Brexit-related developments, particularly those related to the Tory party leadership contest, would quickly supersede any reaction to the May UK inflation report or the June BOE meeting this week.

对于任何其他货币，通知报告通常在央行决定前几天通常会引起市场参与者的极大兴趣。但对于因英国退欧传奇而陷入困境的英镑，英格兰银行已被绝育：只要英国脱欧谈判正在进行中，英国央行就不会采取利率行动。考虑到这一现实，任何与英国脱欧相关的发展，尤其是与保守党领导力竞赛相关的发展，都将很快取代对英国5月通胀报告或本周6月英国央行会议的任何反应。

Pairs to Watch: EURGBP, GBPJPY, GBPUSD

值得关注：EURGBP，GBPJPY，GBPUSD

GBPUSD Technical Analysis: Daily Price Chart (December 2017 to June 2019) (Chart 1)

GBPUSD技术分析：每日价格走势图（2017年12月至2019年6月）（图1）

Over the past year, since the bearish outside engulfing bar on June 14, 2018, GBPUSD prices have predominantly traded between 1.2660 and 1.3365, closing within this range 92.2% of the time, or 20 times out of the past 258 trading days.

Over过去的一年，自2018年6月14日看跌的外部吞没酒吧以来，英镑兑美元的价格主要在1.2660和1.3365之间交易，在此范围内收盘时间为92.2％，或者在过去258个交易日内收盘20次。

At a time when the US Dollars technical structure has proven increasingly weak in recent weeks, that GBPUSD prices failed to make a recovery back through the daily 21-EMA, the start of June suggests that a bigger decline may be about to take place. Now, the close on Friday, June 14, 2019 – exactly one year after the bearish outside engulfing bar last June – may constitute just the 21st time that GBPUSD prices closed outside of the 1.2660/1.3365 range.

在最近几周证明美元技术结构越来越弱的时候，英镑兑美元的价格未能通过每日21-EMA反弹，6月初表明更大幅度的下跌可能即将发生。现在，2019年6月14日周五收盘 - 也就是去年6月看跌的外部吞没酒吧后一年 - 可能构成英镑兑美元价格收盘于1.2660 / 1.3365区间之外的第21次。

With GBPUSD price holding below the daily 8-, 13-, and 21-EMA envelope, bearish momentum is starting to build. While Slow Stochastics are pointing lower, they are not in bearish territory just yet; on the other hand, daily MACD is in bearish territory already, but hasnt issued a sell signal. Traders should be on alert of GBPUSD sell signals across momentum indicators in the coming days as price looks ready to break the ascending trendline from the October 2016, January 2017, and December 2018 lows.

由于英镑兑美元价格维持在每日8,13和21-EMA信号下方，看跌势头正在开始建立。虽然慢速随机指标指向较低，但它们尚未处于看跌区域;另一方面，日线MACD已处于看跌区域，但尚未发出卖出信号。由于价格准备从2016年10月，2017年1月和2018年12月的低点突破上行趋势线，交易者应该对未来几天英镑兑美元的动量指标卖出信号保持警惕。

On the way down, the April swing low at 1.2559 is in focus at first. Thereafter, the December 2018 low near 1.2477 comes into focus, followed by the January and 2019 yearly low at 1.2373. The emerging bearish bias is appropriate until GBPUSD price closes back above the daily 21-EMA (which hasnt been done since breaking on May 8).

在下跌的过程中，4月份的低点1.2559成为焦点。此后，2018年12月低点1.2477附近成为焦点，随后是1月和2019年的低点1.2373。新的看跌偏见是合适的，直到英镑兑美元的价格收于每日21-EMA之上（自5月8日突破以来尚未完成）。

IG Client Sentiment Index: GBPUSD (June 14, 2019) (Chart 2)

IG客户情绪指数：英镑兑美元（6月） 14,2019）（图2）

GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 79.8% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.96 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since May 6 when GBPUSD traded near 1.30551; price has moved 3.4% lower since then. The percentage of traders net-long is now its highest since June 6 when GBPUSD traded near 1.2697. The number of traders net-long is 0.2% lower than yesterday and 2.5% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 15.6% lower than yesterday and 14.2% lower from last week.

GBPUSD：零售交易商dta显示79.8％的交易者是净多头，交易者多头做空比率为3.96比1.事实上，自5月6日英镑兑美元交易于1.30551附近以来，交易者仍保持净多头;此后价格已下跌3.4％。交易商净多头的百分比现在是自6月6日英镑兑美元交易于1.2697附近以来的最高点。交易商净多头比昨天减少0.2％，比上周增加2.5％，而交易商净空头数比昨天减少15.6％，比上周减少14.2％。

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger GBPUSD-bearish contrarian trading bias.

我们通常采取逆向观点来观察市场情绪，而交易商持续观点表明英镑兑美元价格可能继续下跌。交易商比昨天和上周进一步净多头，当前情绪和近期变化的结合使我们更加强势英镑兑美元看跌逆势交易偏见。