CAD Sank With Crude Oil, Citigroup Earnings Underpin Growth Fears

Asia Pacific Market Open Talking Points

亚太市场开放式谈话要点

• Canadian Dollar sinks with crude oil as BoC rate cut bets rise

  加拿大元因原油价格下跌原油加息投注上涨

• Citigroup earnings foreshadow disappointing season for banks

  花旗集团的盈利预示着银行业的表现令人失望

• NZD/USD eyeing volatility on deviation in New Zealand CPI

  NZD /美元盯上新西兰CPI偏差的波动

Not sure where crude oil prices are heading next？ We recently released the third quarter Crude Oil fundamental and technical forecast!

不确定原油价格下一步走向何方？我们最近发布第三季度原油基本面和技术预测！

Canadian Dollar Sinks with Crude Oil Prices on US Bank Earnings Concerns

加元兑美元因美国银行盈利忧虑原油价格下跌

The Canadian Dollar underperformed against its major counterparts as odds of a BoC rate cut by year-end climbed to about 45% on Monday from 33% at the end of last week. Indeed, Canadian front-end government bond yields traded to the downside over these past 24 hours. The cause of these bets seemed to stem from external factors as crude oil prices suffered their worst day in almost two weeks.

加拿大元兑其主要货币表现落后，因为年底加息的可能性从周末的33％上升至周一的45％左右。事实上，加拿大前端政府债券收益率在过去24小时内走低。这些赌注的原因似乎源于外部因素，因为原油价格在近两周内遭遇了最糟糕的一天。

Turning our attention towards the US, the S&P 500, while gapping to the upside, spent the rest of its day trading lower as it finished little changed from Fridays close. Examining the sectors, the index was led lower by financials. More specifically, banks declined over one percent despite Citigroup reporting an EPS beat of $1.83 versus 1.80 expected as second quarter revenue climbed 2% y/y.

将注意力转向美国标准普尔500指数从上周开始，其余部分交易时间较低，因为从周五收盘时收盘变化不大。通过审查这些板块，该指数被金融股走低。更具体地说，尽管花旗集团报告每股收益为1.83美元，而预期第二季度收入同比增长2％，因此银行股价下跌超过1％。

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However, trading revenue dropped roughly 5% as CFO Mark Mason fretted about trade wars and the Fed stance weighing on client sentiment. At one point, Citigroup shares were down about 2.32% after market open. While the stock pared losses, those of JPMorgan and Wells Fargo, ahead of their earnings report on Tuesday, sunk and stayed lower. This might reflect the markets anticipating similar frets from them ahead.

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Moreover, on the chart below, US bond yields declined as markets remain concerned over the outlook from the Federal Reserve and global growth. This works to dampen demand prospects for sentiment-linked crude oil prices. Meanwhile, the commodity is a key revenue for Canada and thus can impact domestic monetary policy. All eyes for the Loonie are on this weeks Canadian CPI report.

此外，在下图中，由于市场仍对美联储和全球经济增长的前景感到忧虑，美国国债收益率下跌。这有助于抑制情绪相关原油的需求前景CES。同时，商品是加拿大的主要收入，因此可能影响国内货币政策。 Loonie的所有目光都在加拿大CPI报告的这个星期。

Chart of the Day – Sentiment Dragged Down by Bank Shares

每日图表 - 被银行股票拖累的情绪

Chart Created in TradingView

在TradingView中创建的图表

Tuesdays Asia Pacific Trading Session

周二的亚太交易时段

S&P 500 futures are little changed ahead of Tuesdays Asia Pacific trading session. This places the focus on key fundamental event risk for currencies ahead. Most notably are the New Zealand CPI report and latest minutes from the RBA rate decision earlier this month. For the former, the RBNZs data-dependent approach leaves NZD/USD vulnerable to volatility given a surprise deviation from expectations.

标准普尔500指数期货周二亚太交易时段之前几乎没有变化。这将重点放在未来货币的关键基本事件风险上。最值得注意的是新西兰CPI报告以及本月早些时候澳大利亚央行利率决定的最新报告。对于前者，新西兰联储的数据依赖方法使新西兰元/美元易受波动影响，因为出乎意料地偏离预期。