US Dollar Goes Haywire on Fed-Speak Mis-Fire: Now What？

US Dollar, S&P 500, Gold Talking Points:

美元，标准普尔500指数，黄金谈话要点：

• Markets got chaotic in the latter-portion of yesterdays US session as a comment from John Williams was inferred to mean that the Fed is looking to take aggressive steps at their next policy meeting.

  后者市场陷入混乱 - 作为约翰威廉姆斯的评论，昨天美国会议的部分被推断为意味着美联储正在寻求在下次政策会议上采取积极步骤。

• That comment was later walked-back as mis-communication, and many of those market themes posed some element of pullback.

  该评论后来被误认为是错误的沟通，其中许多市场主题都带来了一些回调因素。

Ready For Some Fed… in Two Weeks

为两周内的一些美联储做好准备

The latter portion of yesterday‘s US session was interesting. In a speech from the NY Fed President, John Williams said the bank should ’act quickly.‘ And with global markets focusing-in on the Fed for the FOMC rate decision in two weeks, that comment was inferred to mean that the bank is currently looking to get very dovish very quickly in the effort of addressing the current growth slowdown. This off-hand comment punched the US Dollar lower and Gold prices caught a firm bid to drive up to fresh six-year-highs. The intra-day losses that had shown in US equity bourses were quickly erased ahead of the close as it appeared as if the world’s largest Central Bank was ready to start a new trend of softening that could be here for a little while; running in stark contrast to the one rate cut that the bank had forecast at their June rate decision.

昨天美国会议的后半部分很有意思。在纽约联储主席的讲话中，约翰·威廉姆斯表示银行应该“迅速采取行动”。由于全球市场关注美联储在两周内就FOMC利率决定，该评论被推断为意味着银行目前为了解决目前的经济增长放缓，我们希望能够迅速变得温和起来。这一现有评论打压了美元走低，黄金价格稳固上扬至新的六年高位。美国股票交易所的日内亏损在收盘前很快被抹去，因为看起来这个世界上最大的央行已经准备好开始出现一段时间可能会出现疲软的新趋势;与银行在6月份的利率决策中预测的一次降息形成鲜明对比。

In rates markets, there was a near immediate pricing-in of 50 basis points of softening at the July rate decision. Ahead of that comment, odds were showing at around 38%. Shortly after this made its way through markets, those odds jumped up to 63.5%, as discussed by our own Rich Dvorak.

在利率市场中，几乎立即定价50个基点。 7月利率决定软化。在评论之前，赔率显示在38％左右。在经历了市场之后不久，这些可能性上升至63.5％，正如我们自己的Rich Dvorak所讨论的那样。

Later in the evening, however, the NY Fed came out with a correction. The bank said that the comment from Mr. Williams was in reference to longer-term economic research, and that he didnt necessarily mean to remark on near-term dynamics. And just as quickly as the US Dollar had dropped previously, strength showed back up and many of the above-mentioned themes pulled back.

后来我然而，到了晚上，纽约联邦储备银行出现了调整。该银行表示，威廉姆斯先生的评论涉及长期经济研究，而且他并不一定意味着要评论近期动态。就像美元之前下跌一样快，力量显示出来并且许多上述主题被撤回。

On the below hourly chart of the S&P 500, the bounce coming in off of those comments from John Williams is very clear, as it erased the entirety of the early-day losses in the index with resistance coming-in off of the 14.4% Fibonacci retracement of the recent bullish move.

在标准普尔500指数的下方小时图上，约翰·威廉姆斯的评论中的反弹非常明显，因为它消除了整个指数的早盘跌幅，阻力位于14.4％之间Fibonacci回撤近期的看涨行动。

S&P 500 Hourly Price Chart

标普500小时价格走势图

Chart prepared by James Stanley

Chart由詹姆斯·斯坦利准备

Taking a step back on the S&P to the four-hour chart, and there could be scope for sell-off, particularly given the fact that the bullish driver that catapulted this thing higher yesterday has been walked-back. And speaking to the prospect of a 50 basis point cut in two weeks, this morning brought comments from one of the more bearish FOMC members of James Bullard, where he didnt seem to entertain the possibility at all.

向标准普尔指数退一步到四小时图表，可能存在抛售的空间，特别是考虑到看涨的驱动因素把这件事推向高潮昨天已经走了回来。并谈到两周内减少50个基点的前景，今天上午带来了詹姆斯布拉德更加看跌的FOMC成员的评论，他似乎根本没有接受这种可能性。

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So through the chaos of yesterday‘s drive, we’re practically back to where we had started as there is no clear evidence that the Fed is looking at this oncoming rate cut as anything more than a one-off adjustment after ‘over-tightening’ last year.

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From the four-hour chart of the S&P 500, resistance has shown around the under-side of a prior bullish trend-line, confluent with the 14.4% Fibonacci retracement of the recent bullish move.

从标准普尔500指数的4小时图中看，阻力位在先前看涨趋势线的下方附近，汇合最近看涨走势的14.4％斐波那契回撤。

S&P 500 Four-Hour Price Chart

标准普尔500指数四小时价格走势图

Chart prepared by James Stanley

James Stanley编制的图表

US Dollar Outlook Unclear as FOMC Moves into Blackout Period

美元前景不明朗，因为联邦公开市场委员会进入停电期

This Saturday marks the start of the Fed‘s ’blackout period,‘ meaning that bank members are prohibited from media engagements in the effort of avoiding scenarios similar to what we’ve just seen. But this leaves market participants to their own devices as projections will likely continue to run wild as to what the Fed might actually do, and how they may do it.

本周六标志着美联储“停电期”的开始，意味着银行成员被禁止参与媒体活动以避免类似于我们刚才看到的情景。但这会让市场参与者对自己的设备产生影响，因为对于美联储可能实际做什么以及如何做到这一点，预测可能会继续疯狂。

In the US Dollar, the currency was on its back foot for most of yesterday after some dovish comments from Fed Vice Chair, Richard Clarida; but USD was absolutely slammed around these Williams remarks. Since the NY Fed has walked that back, however, a strong topside move has since developed, and it could be difficult to pick the proper direction here as there is now motive on either side of the scenario. This is the type of situation in which balancing risk around the US Dollar as part of the overall strategy could be a very attractive way of going about matters.

美元在美联储副主席理查德克拉里达（Richard Clarida）发表一些温和言论后，昨日大部分时间，该货币一直处于落后状态。但美元在这些威廉姆斯言论中绝对受到抨击。然而，自从纽约联邦储备银行走回去以来，强势上行已经发展，并且可能很难在这里选择正确的方向，因为现在该方案的任何一方都有动机。在这种情况下，作为整体战略的一部分，平衡美元周围的风险可能是处理问题的一种非常有吸引力的方式。

US Dollar Daily Price Chart

美元每日价格走势图

Chart prepared by James Stanley

James Stanley编制的图表

What Could be More Clear？ Gold…

什么可以更清楚？黄金......

In a market environment that hangs on the balance of what a few people might decide to do, there isn‘t a lot that’s certain right now. Perhaps thickening the drama is that its not just about what they do, but how they do it. Will the Fed pitch this rate cut as a one-off？ Or, will they highlight the potential for more softening down-the-road in the effort of re-spurring growth in the US economy？ This can be a difficult case to make at the moment from the perspective of the banks dual mandate. Neither inflation nor employment are looking in dire need of support at the moment.

在一个人们可能决定做的事情的平衡的市场环境中，现在还有很多不确定的事情。也许戏剧性的加剧不仅在于它们的作用，还在于它们是如何做到的。美联储是否会将此降息作为一次性降息？或者，他们是否会强调在重新刺激美国经济增长的过程中可能会出现更多软化的可能性？这可能是一个难以解决的问题。从银行双重授权的角度来看。通货膨胀和就业都不需要支持目前。{/ p>

But there remains a fairly massive disconnect between market expectations and FOMC projections. Markets want to see three rate cuts by the end of this year. The Fed, at this point, has only talked about the possibility of one.

但市场预期与FOMC预测之间存在相当大的脱节。市场希望在今年年底前实现三次降息。此时，美联储只讨论了其中一种可能性。

The one item that is clear is that rate hikes probably arent happening anytime soon around the FOMC; or any other major Central Banks for that matter. And this is the type of environment in which Gold gets very interesting, as witnessed over the past six weeks as the yellow metal has broken out to fresh six-year-highs.

明确的一个问题是加息可能很快就会在FOMC附近发生;或任何其他主要的中央银行。这是黄金变得非常有趣的环境类型，过去六周见证了黄金已经突破至新的六年高点。

At this stage, Gold prices have pulled back as those Williams comments were ‘re-clarified,’ but support is now showing at prior resistance. This prior resistance zone runs from 1421-1433, and a hold here can keep the door open for bullish strategies. If USD-strength does continue to show ahead of the Fed, theres scope for deeper support even-lower on the chart, as discussed earlier this week ahead of the breakout.

At在这个阶段，由于威廉姆斯的评论被“重新澄清”，黄金价格已经回落，但现在支撑位在先前的阻力位上。这个先前的阻力区域从1421-1433开始，此处的持有可以为看涨策略敞开大门。如果美元走强继续显示在美联储之前，那么图表中更深层支撑的范围甚至更低，正如本周早些时候在突破之前所讨论的那样。

Gold Price Four-Hour Chart

黄金价格四小时图表

Chart prepared by James Stanley

由James Stanley编制的图表