Gold Spikes to Multi-year High after Feds Williams Puts 50bps Rate Cut Back in Play

Gold futures spiked higher late in the session, Treasury yields fell and the U.S. Dollar plunged against a basket of major currencies after New York Federal Reserve President John Williams solidified a 25-basis point rate cut at the end of July, and may have refueled the argument for a 50-basis point rate cut with a series of dovish comments.

纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯在7月底加息25个基点后，黄金期货尾盘飙升，国债收益率下跌，美元兑一揽子主要货币暴跌并且可能已经通过一系列温和的评论加油了50个基点降息的论点。

August Comex gold rallied to $1448.30, taking out former tops at $1441.00 and $1442.90 in the process. After trading mostly sideways for nearly a month, patient bullish traders may have finally received the bullish news they had been waiting for to resume it multi-year rally.

8月Comex黄金上涨至1448.30美元，前者上涨至1441.00美元和1442.90美元。进行中。在大多数横盘整理近一个月后，耐心的看涨交易者可能最终收到他们一直等待恢复多年反弹的看涨消息。

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note reached its highest level since July 8 as rates fell. September U.S. Dollar Index futures broke sharply and are now in a position to turn lower for the week and resume the downtrend on a break through 96.375. The major U.S. equity indexes recovered from early session weakness and are now trading higher for the session in both the cash and futures markets. .

基准10年随着利率下降，美国国债收于7月8日以来的最高水平。 9月美元指数期货大幅突破，现在有望在本周内走低，并在突破96.375时恢复下行趋势。美国主要股指从早盘疲软中复苏，目前在现货和期货市场均走高。 。

Feds Williams Say “Take Swift Action”, “Keep Interest Rates Lower for Longer”

美联储的威廉姆斯说“采取迅速行动”，“保持较低的利率”

Speaking at the annual meeting of the Central Bank Research Association, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said central bankers need to act quickly and forcefully when rates are low and economic growth is slowing.

在年会上发言中央银行研究协会，纽约联储主席约翰威廉姆斯表示，当利率低且经济增长放缓时，央行行长需要迅速而有力地采取行动。

In his speech, the prominent Fed policymaker delivered a speech discussing what should be done when central banks are near the “zero lower bound (ZLB),” or close to as low as rates can go.

在他的讲话中，着名的美联储政策制定者发表演讲，讨论当央行接近“零下限（ZLB）”时应该采取什么措施，或者接近利率可以接近的水平。

“Its better to take preventative measures than to wait for disaster to unfold,” he said. He further added rather than keep rates elevated to give central banks room to cut in the face of a crisis, the proper move is not to “keep your powder dry.”

采取预防措施比等待灾难展开更好，“他说。他进一步补充而不是保持利率上升，以便在面临危机时给央行留下空间，正确的举措不是”保持粉末干燥。

“When the ZLB is nowhere in view, one can afford to move slowly and take a ‘wait and see’ approach to gain additional clarity about potentially adverse economic developments. But not when interest rates are in the vicinity of the ZLB,” he said in prepared remarks. “In that case, you want to do the opposite, and vaccinate against further ills. When you only have so much stimulus at your disposal, it pays to act quickly to lower rates at the first sign of economic distress.”

“当ZLB无处可见，人们可以放慢脚步，采取”观望“态度，进一步明确潜在的不利经济发展。但不是在瑞士法郎的税率在ZLB附近，”他在准备好的评论中说。 “在这种情况下，你想做相反的事情，并为进一步的疾病接种疫苗。如果您只有这么多的刺激措施，那么在经济困难的第一个迹象下迅速行动以降低利率是值得的。”

Williams didn‘t actually say he would vote for a rate cut, but the response by stock market investors indicates that his dovish tone means he’s leaning that way. It could also mean to some that the Fed may take the aggressive route and raise rates by a half-a-point.

威廉姆斯实际上并没有说他会投票降息，但股市投资者的回应表明他的鸽派基调意味着他倾向于这样。对某些人来说，这也可能意味着美联储可能采取积极的态度并将利率提高半个点。

Currently, the markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut, and a 38% probability that the Fed might cut by 50-basis points, according to the CME.

目前，市场定价的可能性为100％。根据芝加哥商品交易所的数据，降息25个基点，美联储可能下调50个基点的可能性为38％。

Williams finished by saying that when faced with low rates and slowing growth, the best strategy is to “take swift action” and “keep interest rates lower for longer.”

威廉姆斯表示，面对低利率和放缓增长，最好的策略是“采取迅速行动”和“将利率维持在较低水平。”

“The expectation of lower interest rates in the future lowers yields on bonds and thereby fosters more favorable financial conditions overall. This will allow the stimulus to pick up steam, support economic growth over the medium term, and allow inflation to rise,” he said.

“未来利率降低的预期降低债券收益率，从而促进整体更有利的金融条件。这将使刺激措施得到加速，支持中期经济增长，并允许通胀上升，”他说。

Supports Case for 50-Basis Point Rate Cut

支持50基点降息的案例

“Take swift action” and “keep interest rates lower for longer” may mean to some that a 25-basis point rate cut is a done deal, but to others it means “be aggressive”. Therefore, I have to conclude that the chances of a half-a-point rate cut may increase over the near-term, which could be supportive for gold prices.

“采取迅速行动”和“将利率维持在较低水平”可能意味着某些人认为降息25个基点是完成交易，但对其他人而言，这意味着“要好斗”。因此，我必须得出结论，降息半个月的可能性可能会在短期内增加，这可能会支撑金价。

This will certainly be the main topic of discussion for investors over the next two weeks. Even with pockets of the economy showing improvement like todays Philly Fed Manufacturing report, the Fed has to decide if it wants to send a message to investors that it has the back of the economy, or play the waiting game with the data until the next meeting in September.

这肯定会是未来两周投资者讨论的主要话题。即使像今天的费城联储制造业报告中经济显示有所改善，美联储也必须决定是否要向投资者发出信息，表明它有经济效益，或者在下次会议之前与数据一起玩等待游戏九月。