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Abstract:Oil prices have sold off for the past five days with crude now approaching the first major support zone. Here are the levels that matter on the WTI technical charts.
Crude Oil price breakdown approaching initial support hurdles- shorts vulnerable near-term
原油价格崩溃接近初步支撑障碍 - 近期短线弱势
Crude Oil Prices are poised to mark a sixth consecutive daily decline today if price closes at these levels with the sell-off now targeting the first major support zone just lower. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the crude oil price charts (WTI). Review this week's Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this oil price setup and more.
原油价格即将连续第六个交易日下跌,如今价格收于这些水平,现在瞄准第一个主要支撑区域的下跌。这些是原油价格走势图(WTI)的最新目标和无效水平。回顾本周的战略网络研讨会,深入分析这种油价设置等等。
Crude Oil Price Chart - WTI Daily
原油价格走势图 - WTI每日
Technical Outlook: In my latest Oil Price Weekly Outlook we noted, “the immediate oil price advance is vulnerable while below confluence resistance at 60.06/47. From a trading standpoint, a good place to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops. Be on the lookout for possible topside exhaustion to give way to a larger pullback in crude.” The subsequent five-day sell-off has now broken below the monthly open support and the objective July opening-range lows and leaves the risk for further losses heading into the close of the month.
技术展望:我的最新油价我们注意到每周展望,“即时油价上涨是脆弱的,而低于汇合阻力位于60.06 / 47。从交易的角度来看,这是一个减少长时间曝光/提高保护性止损的好地方。继续关注可能的上行疲惫让位于原油价格大幅下挫。”随后的五天抛售现已跌破月度开盘支撑位和目标7月开盘价低点,并留下进一步下跌的风险进入月末。
That said, the immediate decline is now approaching initial areas of support which could interrupt the current oil price breakdown. Confluence support rests at 54.52/60 backed by the December trendline / 78.6% retracement at 52.89- both areas of interest for near-term exhaustion.
尽管如此,目前的下降正在接近可能打断当前支撑的初始支撑区域油价崩溃。汇率支撑位于54.52 / 60,受到12月趋势线支撑/ 78.6%回撤位于52.89-两个近期疲惫的利息区域。
Crude Oil Price Chart – WTI 240min
原油油价图表 - WTI 240分钟
Notes: A closer look at oil price action shows WTI posting a 4-hour outside-reversal bar off key resistance at 60.06/45 early in the week with the decline trading within the confines of a well-defined descendingpitchfork formation. Initial resistance at the median-line / monthly opening-range lows at 56.03/28 with broader bearish invalidation now lowered to the July open at 58.15. A break below the 54.52/60 support zone exposes subsequent downside objectives at 52.89 and 51.67- look for a bigger reaction there IF reached.
注意:仔细观察油价行情可以看出WTI发布的4小时外部逆转关闭本周早些时候关键阻力位于60.06 / 45,下跌交易位于明确的下行干草叉形成范围内。中线/月度开盘低点的初步阻力位于56.03 / 28,更广泛的看跌失效现在降至7月开盘时的58.15。突破54.52 / 60支撑区后,下行目标为52.89和51.67-在IF达到更大的反应。
Bottom line: The oil price sell-off is approaching the first major support target and while the broader risk remains lower, the immediate decline may be vulnerable heading into 54.52/60. From a trading standpoint, a good spot to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops – well be on the lookout for possible downside exhaustion on a stretch lower.
底线:油价贬值接近第一个主要支撑目标,而更广泛的风险仍然较低,直接下跌可能很脆弱,进入54.52 / 60。从交易的角度来看,这是减少短期暴露/降低保护性止损的好地方 - 请注意在较低的时间段内可能出现下行疲惫。
Crude Oil Trader Sentiment (WTI)
原油交易员情绪(WTI)
A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Crude Oil - the ratio stands at +1.94 (66.0% of traders are long) – bearish reading
IG客户情绪摘要显示交易商是净多头原油 - 该比率为+1.94(66.0%的交易者)长期看跌 - 看跌读数
Long positions are 3.5% higher than yesterday and 22.3% higher from last week
多头头寸比昨天增加3.5%,比上周增加22.3%
{20}
Short positions are 4.6% lower than yesterday and 34.4% lower from last week
{20}
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Oil prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday & last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger Oil - US Crude-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
我们通常德对人群情绪的逆向观点,以及交易商净多头表明油价可能继续下跌。交易商比昨天和上周进一步净多头,目前的定位和最近的变化相结合,使我们从情绪的角度看待油价走强 - 美国原油看跌逆势交易偏差。
Disclaimer:
The views in this article only represent the author's personal views, and do not constitute investment advice on this platform. This platform does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information in the article, and will not be liable for any loss caused by the use of or reliance on the information in the article.
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