FX Week Ahead Top 5 Events: August BOE Meeting & GBP/USD Rate Forecast

GBP Price Hinges on Brexit, August BOE Meeting, UK Inflation

英镑脱欧英镑，8月英国央行会议，英国通货膨胀

• Spot GBPUSD plunged to a fresh year-to-date low and now trades at its weakest level since April 2017

  现货英镑兑美元跌至今年以来新低，现在是2017年4月以来最低水平的交易

• UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson now sits at the helm of British Parliament and raises the risk of no-deal Brexit

  英国首相鲍里斯·约翰逊现在是英国的掌舵人议会并提高了无交易的风险英国退欧

• The August BOE meeting could underscore its warning signals of the potential impact of no-deal Brexit and potentially walk back its relatively hawkish stance on rates

  8月份英国央行会议可能会强调其无交易脱欧潜在影响的警告信号回顾其对利率的相对强硬立场

08/01 THURSDAY | 11:00 GMT | GBP Bank of England Rate Decision & Quarterly Inflation Report

08/01周四|格林尼治标准时间11:00 |英镑英国央行利率决定和季度通胀报告

With PM Boris Johnson officially at the helm of British Parliament, the drums for no-deal Brexit are beating louder across the UK. This has put spot GBPUSD under a considerable amount of pressure with potential for further weakness which could be sparked by the August BOE meeting slated for next Thursday at 11:00 GMT.

随着英国议会首席执行官鲍里斯·约翰逊的正式掌舵，英国脱欧英国退欧的鼓声越来越大。这使得现货英镑兑美元承受了相当大的压力，可能会进一步走软，这可能是由格林威治标准时间下周四格林威治标准时间8点举行的8月份英国央行会议引发的。

The Bank of England has been shackled to a cautious monetary policy normalization approach considering the vast amount of risk and uncertainty surround Brexit. Although, the hawkish tilt by the UKs central bank has shifted to a more neutral bias recently and monetary policy outlook could turn even less optimistic at the upcoming August BOE meeting. Aside from forward rate guidance, the BOE will also provide markets with its quarterly inflation report.

银行考虑到英国退欧的巨大风险和不确定性，英国一直受到谨慎的货币政策正常化方法的束缚。尽管如此，英国中央银行的鹰派倾向最近已转向更为中性的偏见，而货币政策前景在即将到来的8月份英国央行会议上可能变得不那么乐观。除了远期利率指引外，英国央行还将向市场提供其季度通胀报告。

Pairs to Watch: EURGBP, GBPJPY, GBPUSD

值得关注：EURGBP，GBPJPY， GBPUSD

SPOT GBPUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: DAILY PRICE CHART (JULY 2018 TO JULY 2019)

SPOT GBPUSD技术分析：每日价格表（2018年7月至2019年7月）

GBPUSD price remains below the daily 8-, 13-, and 21-EMA envelope, and if the daily candle were to finish at these levels, it would represent the lowest close of the year. Daily MACD has just turned lower again while bearish territory, a sign of significant weakness. Slow Stochastics have turned lower as well. Bearish momentum is accelerating again for GBPUSD; a breakdown to fresh yearly lows appears to be around the corner.

英镑兑美元价格仍然低于每日8,13和21-EMA信封，如果每日蜡烛在这些水平上完成，它将代表今年的最低收盘价。在看跌时，每日MACD再次走低领土，显着的弱点。慢速随机指标也走低。英镑兑美元的看跌势头再次加速;细分到新的年度低点似乎即将到来。

IG CLIENT SENTIMENT INDEX: GBPUSD DAILY PRICE CHART (JANUARY 28, 2019 TO JULY 26, 2019)

IG客户感觉指数：GBPUSD每日价格表（2019年1月28日至2019年7月26日）

Spot GBPUSD retail trader data shows 82.1% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 4.59 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since May 06 when GBPUSD traded near 1.29061; price has moved 4.0% lower since then. The percentage of traders net-long is now its highest since Jul 17 when GBPUSD traded near 1.24318. The number of traders net-long is 9.3% higher than yesterday and 19.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 21.5% lower than yesterday and 26.9% lower from last week.

现货英镑兑美元零售交易者数据显示，82.1％的交易者为净多头，交易者多头做空比率为4.59比1.实际上，交易者自2005年5月英镑兑美元汇率在1.29061附近交易以来一直保持净多头;此后价格已下跌4.0％。交易商净多头的百分比现在是自7月17日英镑兑美元交易于1.24318附近以来的最高点。交易商净多头比昨天增加9.3％，比上周增加19.4％，而交易商净空头数比昨天减少21.5％，比上周减少26.9％。

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger GBPUSD-bearish contrarian trading bias.

我们通常采取逆向观点来观察市场情绪，而且交易者净多头表明英镑兑美元价格可能继续下跌。交易商比昨天和上周进一步净多头，当前情绪和近期变化的结合使我们更加强势英镑兑美元看跌逆势交易偏见。