The Simplest Way to Have an Outlook of the Economies

The national accounts movement, IOL rates, and M-series data reveal the general economic condition of a country and the overall underperformance of the currency market. These indicators reflect explicit interpretations on specific sectors such as exports/imports, labor markets, and currency rating terms, rather than merely numbers applied to analyze the economic outlook. In general, people reckon that the latest economic data will add information to what we already know. However, common mistakes happens all the time. From 2019 to 2020, the Forex market has been driven by striking events like the U.S. election and pandemic breakouts instead of the data. These facts have proved how outdated the unintegrated indicators are when facing dynamic public incidents.

For every man with a broken compass, the world looks like an ocean of depression. As traders in the Forex market, people have no consensus on the price movements and patterns of currencies. They make the decision of investment based on their own judgment and their available capital. The process of judgment highly depends on the information stream. So once stuck in the less helpful indicators, investors are unlikely to mobilize their maximum potential.

The forex market is reshaped by global investors, increasing investment diversity and the enthusiasm in investing currencies. We have seen a contradiction between the actual movements of the Forex market and the economic data. These outlooks differ in degrees because the applicable data is more inclusive. Tankan and ZEW are the most used indicators in forecasting the further movement of the Japanese Yen and Eurodollar.

Does an omnipotent indicator really exist？ YES

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment aggregates sentiments of around 350 economists and analysts to get a sense of Germany's economic outlook. These experts came from banks, insurance companies, and financial departments of selected corporations. They were consulted about their expectations for the overall economy, inflation rates, interest rates, stock markets, exchange rates, and oil prices over the next six months. Tankan survey covers thousands of Japanese companies with a specified minimum amount of capital, but firms deemed sufficiently influential may also be included. According to a document from the Bank of Japan, the list does not include companies that have a “weak link with economic conditions” such as education and health care.

A wise trader will always identify the best of these two indicators and the worst of the traditional ones. These two indicators focus on economic data from all sources and professional insight into the outcomes. Despite the criticism on the objectivity, these two indicators are powerful when people need a reliable reference for economic environment evaluation.