Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Showing Signs of Life Mid-Month after Dismal Start to December

Natural gas futures finished higher on Friday, underpinned by consistent liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand and a bullish government report for the week-ending December 11. Helping to generate a small spike to the upside during the session were forecasts calling for freezing temperatures.

On Friday, February natural gas futures settled at $2.603, up $0.033 or 1.28%.

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Despite the strength in the futures market, the spot market was under pressure as traders booked profits after nearly week-long gains and squared positions ahead of the weekend. According to Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI), the Spot Gas National Average dropped 55.0 cents to $3.010. The catalyst driving the price action was the passing of a major snowstorm that hit the Northeast early in the week, but dissipated by Friday.

Short-Term Weather Outlook

Forecasters expected winter conditions to further ease over the weekend, with warmer-than-normal conditions spreading over most of the Lower 48 early in the Christmas holiday week. However, a widespread blast of cold was expected to arrive by Christmas Eve and last for several days, generating strong national heading demand, NatGasWeather said.

“A mild break is likely over much of the United States near December 28, but with the potential for cold to return December 29-January 1,” the forecaster said. That set up a potentially favorable mid-range outlook for domestic natural gas demand and supporting futures on Friday.

[fx-article-ad]LNG Feed Gas Volumes Steady

NGI said on Friday that “LNG Feed gas volumes, meanwhile, hovered near 11 Bcf as trading commenced Friday. That was on par with the prior day and reflected steady and solid demand for U.S. exports as winter weather settles across much of Asia and Europe and heating fuel needs mount.”

Delayed Reaction to slightly Bullish Government Storage Report

Natural gas prices rebounded on Friday after traders took another look at Thursdays Energy Information Administration (EIA) storage report. The initial reaction to the report was bearish with the market posting a bearish technical closing price reversal top.

However, there was no follow-through to the downside on Friday which suggests the report was perceived as bullish and that traders believe stronger seasonal heating demand is here to stay after a dismal month of November.

The EIA reported a 122 Bcf withdrawal from inventories for the week-ending December 1. This was marginally higher than the median estimates found in major polls.

‘Bullish Undercurrents’

Analysts at Tudor, Pickering, Hold & Co. (TPH) said the latest withdrawal combined with prior pulls pointed to a tightening supply/demand balance and “bullish undercurrents” for prices.

EBW Analytics Group saw a similar pattern.

“In November, lackluster temperatures” created bearish conditions, “including lower industrial and electricity demand, to loosen the supply/demand balance,” EBW said. However, “even moderately cooler temperatures in December are showing a much tighter market.” The firm noted expectations for additional shots of cold and soaring residential space heating demand amid widespread working-from-home arrangements in place because of diffuse coronavirus outbreaks this month.

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