Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Fall Despite Cool Weather Forecast

Natural gas prices moved lower on Monday, falling 1.3% despite a weather forecast that shows that warmer than usual weather is expected to cover most of the United States for the next two weeks. Supply in the US has started to recover as dry gas production increased in the south US following Texass electrical outages.

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Technical analysis

Natural gas prices took another leg lower on Monday after breaking down through trend line support last week. The 10-day moving average is fast approaching the 50-day moving average, which means a short-term down trend could be in place. Short-term momentum is negative but consolidating. The fast stochastic generated a crossover buy signal in oversold territory. The current reading on the fast stochastic is 9, below the oversold trigger level of 20, foreshadowing a correction. Medium-term momentum remains negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in negative territory with a declining trajectory which points to consolidation.

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[fx-article-ad]Support is Recovering

Supply continues to recover as estimated dry gas production rises to early February levels. The average total supply of natural gas rose by 6.7% compared with the previous report week. Dry natural gas production grew by 10.1% compared with the previous report week, averaging more than 90 Bcf per day for the first time since the week ending February 10. Average net imports from Canada decreased by 31.7% from last week, reaching the lowest weekly average since the week ending December 1, 2020.