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Abstract:The US dollar has rallied slightly on Wednesday as we await the FOMC meeting. However, yields are starting to rise and therefore it drives the dollar higher.
The US dollar rallied a bit during the course of the trading session on Wednesday as we await the FOMC meeting. Ultimately, the market looks as if it is trying to get to the ¥110 level, which of course is a major large figure. Having said that, we are getting a bit parabolic at this point, and I still believe that we need to see some type of pullback in order to have a sustainable move. With these parabolic moves, sooner or later pullbacks calm, and when they do, they tend to be rather brutal.
USD/JPY Video 18.03.21
Underneath, I would be very interested in buying near the ¥107 level, assuming that we can even get there. The ¥108 level also could be supportive, so it simply going to be a matter of seeing a pullback that I can take advantage of, perhaps on a daily timeframe type of situation. I would not be surprised at all to see a couple of rough days followed by stabilization, followed by a continuation of the move.
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At this point, the market is likely to see a continuation and trend change due to the fact that we have such a major divergence between interest rates in the United States and Japan, which of course can drive markets for quite some time. Ultimately, this is a market that you cannot short, unless of course the Federal Reserve completely switches it is monetary policy, something that is very unlikely to happen. That being said, I would anticipate a lot of noisy trading ahead, but clearly there is a huge shift in market sentiment.
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