Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Alt-Coins - Beware of Weekend Volatility

• Bitcoin (BTC/USD), Ethereum (ETH/USD) struggle to break higher.

• Lower volume over the weekend may spark a volatility breakout.

The cryptocurrency market is on the back foot ahead of a long weekend in a raft of countries, including the UK and the US, and with volatility levels still high, whippy price action over the coming days cannot be discounted. The current market capitalization is around $1.6 trillion and is nearly 40% off its all-time peak, highlighting that the recent heavy losses have not been pulled back to any great extent. Traders need to be aware that low volume and high volatility markets are ripe for large swings, and with sentiment in the cryptocurrency market still dented, further losses cannot be ruled out.

Bitcoin continues to struggle and any rally will have to overcome the 200-day simple moving average which is currently capping BTC/USD. Bitcoin has not been below the 200-dsma for over a year, so the recent breakdown remains worrying. The 200-day sma currently sits around $40,700. Volatility levels are off their recent extremes but remain high at $4,650 compared to a spot price of $37,000

BITCOIN (BTC/USD) DAILY PRICE CHART

The Ethereum chart looks a little more positive than Bitcoins and highlights the positive performance of the ETH/BTC spread this year. ETH remains above its 200-day sma by a large margin, although the recent slip below the 50-dsma is a short-term negative. If this can be regained, then $3,000 should be achieved relatively quickly. Again, volatility is high at $443 against a spot price of $2,600.

The alt-coin market remains depressed with any move higher being sold into. It looks like the hot-money crowd has veered away from the alt-coin space and moved back into meme stocks. AMC Entertainment has more than doubled in the last week, alongside massive option volume, while another meme favorite GameStop is up by nearly 50%. It will need Bitcoin, and increasingly Ethereum, to steady and then push ahead to draw the fast money crown back to the alt-coin space.

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