Daily Forex Analysis - 16th July 2021

USD Overview (16 July 2021)

Yesterday, USD strengthened against most major currencies except JPY.

During the second day of his testimony, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted that the central bank is monitoring if the recent inflation rise is temporary or persistent and confront it if necessary. He also reiterated that the conditions for the central bank to start tapering its quantitative easing is still “a ways off”.

The Retail Sales m/m data will be released later at 2030 (GMT+8).

- Core Retail Sales m/m (Forecast: 0.4%, Previous: -0.7%)

- Retail Sales m/m (Forecast: -0.4%, Previous: -1.3%)

The Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment data (Forecast: 86.5, Previous: 85.5 revised from 86.4) will be released later at 2200 (GMT+8).

NZD/USD Outlook (16 July 2021)

Overall, NZD/USD is ranging across.

The New Zealand CPI q/q data (Actual: 1.3%, Forecast: 0.7%, Previous: 0.8%) released earlier today indicated a strong increase in inflation during the second quarter of 2021.

NZD/USDs next support zone is at 0.69500 and the next resistance zone is at 0.71000.

Look for buying opportunities of NZD/USD.

AUD/USD Outlook (16 July 2021)

Overall, AUD/USD is trending downwards. Recently, AUD/USD rejected the resistance zone of 0.75000.

The Australian employment data released yesterday indicated a slowdown in the number of jobs added in June. Looking into the report, full-time employment rose by 51,600 while part-time jobs declined by 22,500. This may indicate the switching from part-time to full-time employment. Also, unemployment rate in June has fallen to below pre-pandemic levels.

- Employment Change (Actual: 29.1K, Forecast: 19.7K, Previous: 115.2K)

- Unemployment Rate (Actual: 4.9%, Forecast: 5.1%, Previous: 5.1%)

It was reported yesterday that Australia has entered a five-day snap lockdown amid the rise in COVID-19 cases.

AUD/USDs next support zone is at 0.73300 and the next resistance zone is at 0.75000.

Look for short-term selling opportunities of AUD/USD.

USD/JPY Outlook (16 July 2021)

Overall, USD/JPY is ranging across. Recently, USD/JPY broke below the key level of 110.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will be announcing its monetary policy decision later at a tentative timing. The central bank is expected to hold its monetary policy unchanged. However, with the sluggish vaccinations in Japan and the recent declaration of state of emergency in Tokyo in order for the Olympics to take place without spectators, the BoJ may express signs of pessimism. Also, the central bank may revise it economic outlook when they release the Outlook Report tomorrow.

A press conference will be held after the announcement. During this time, there may be volatility in JPY.

USD/JPYs next support zone is at 108.500 and the next resistance zone is at 110.800.

If the BoJ sends out a dovish tone and that USD/JPY breaks above the key level of 110, look for short-term buying opportunities of USD/JPY.

EUR/USD Outlook (16 July 2021)

Overall, EUR/USD is trending downwards.

Currently, EUR/USD is testing the resistance zone of 1.18200 and the next support zone is at 1.16300.

Look for short-term buying opportunities of EUR/USD if it breaks the resistance zone of 1.18200.

GBP/USD Outlook (16 July 2021)

Overall, GBP/USD is ranging across. Recently, GBP/USD bounced off the support zone of 1.38000.

The UK employment data released yesterday indicated a strong increase in average earnings while the number of people claiming for unemployment benefits continued to decline faster than forecasted. However, unemployment rate inched higher.

- Average Earnings Index 3m/y (Actual: 7.3%, Forecast: 7.1%, Previous: 5.7% revised from 5.6%)

- Claimant Count Change (Actual: -114.8K, Forecast: -32.5K, Previous: -151.4K revised from -92.6K)

- Unemployment Rate (Actual: 4.8%, Forecast: 4.7%, Previous: 4.7%)

During his speech yesterday, Bank of England committee member Saunders said that early quantitative easing tapering will be discussed in the upcoming monetary policy meetings amid the recent strong economic activities and inflation.

GBP/USDs next support zone is at 1.38000 and the next resistance zone is at 1.40000.

Look for short-term buying opportunities of GBP/USD.

USD/CAD Outlook (16 July 2021)

Overall, USD/CAD is trending upwards. Recently, USD/CAD trended into the resistance zone of 1.26100.

The Canadian Housing Starts data (Forecast: 269K, Previous: 276) will be released later at 2015 (GMT+8).

Currently, USD/CAD is testing the resistance zone of 1.26100 and the next support zone is at 1.24800.

Look for short-term buying opportunities of USD/CAD if it breaks the resistance zone of 1.26100.

GBP/JPY Outlook (16 July 2021)

Overall, GBP/JPY is ranging across. Recently, GBP/JPY bounced up from the key level of 152.

The UK employment data released yesterday indicated a strong increase in average earnings while the number of people claiming for unemployment benefits continued to decline faster than forecasted. However, unemployment rate inched higher.

- Average Earnings Index 3m/y (Actual: 7.3%, Forecast: 7.1%, Previous: 5.7% revised from 5.6%)

- Claimant Count Change (Actual: -114.8K, Forecast: -32.5K, Previous: -151.4K revised from -92.6K)

- Unemployment Rate (Actual: 4.8%, Forecast: 4.7%, Previous: 4.7%)

During his speech yesterday, Bank of England committee member Saunders said that early quantitative easing tapering will be discussed in the upcoming monetary policy meetings amid the recent strong economic activities and inflation.

Currently, GBP/JPY is testing to break below the key level of 152. Its next support zone is at 151.000 and the next resistance zone is at 153.800.

Look for short-term buying opportunities of GBP/JPY if it bounces up from the key level of 152.

EUR/JPY Outlook (16 July 2021)

Overall, EUR/JPY is trending downwards.

Currently, EUR/JPY is testing the support zone of 130.000 and the next resistance zone is at 132.000.

Look for short-term buying opportunities of EUR/JPY if it bounces off the support zone of 130.000.