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WikiFX Express

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FX Daily: Dollar boom

WikiFX

| 2022-04-28

Abstract：The dollar is booming. Some trade-weighted measures of the dollar are now close to the highest levels since 2002. The 2022 dollar boom may well turn into a bust in 2023, but we are a long way from calling a top in the dollar now. For today, USD/CNY trading above 6.60, a dovish BoJ, the European gas crisis, and some modest 1Q GDP growth should all keep the dollar bid

USD: Dollar booming in 2022, bust in '23？

It is hard to see this environment changing in the next six months, meaning that this dollar boom looks set to continue. DXY closing above the 104 area could also add fresh momentum to the move. But the Achilles Heel of this dollar rally is that the strong dollar and strong domestic demand are sucking in imports and widening the trade deficit. The US posted an advanced goods trade deficit for March at US$125bn - yes, US$125bn. That is a new record. One developing narrative is that rather like the 1980s, Fed efforts to stamp out inflation send the dollar through the roof and the 2022 dollar boom turns into the 2023 dollar bust if, as we suspect, the Fed might be cutting rates by the end of '23. For now, the dollar boom will very much be the story.

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