简体中文
繁體中文
English
Pусский
日本語
ภาษาไทย
Tiếng Việt
Bahasa Indonesia
Español
हिन्दी
Filippiiniläinen
Français
Deutsch
Português
Türkçe
한국어
العربية
Abstract:The U.S. economic growth forecast was downgraded, and the three major stock indexes fell unilaterally
Fundamentals:
On Wednesday, due to concerns about inflation and slowing economic growth, the three major U.S. stock indexes crashed. Dow futures fell 203.6 points, or about 0.62%, to 32,451.00 points; S&P 500 futures fell 33.1 points, or about 0.81%, to 4,055.80 points; Nasdaq 100 futures were down 150.7 points, or about 1.2 percent, at 12,413.40. Target tumbled 24% due to the weaker-than-expected earnings report, bringing down retail stocks such as Walmart, Costco, and Macy's. In addition, large technology stocks all fell sharply, Apple and Meta fell by more than 5%, and Netflix and Amazon fell by more than 7%.
According to a new poll, 40% of poll participants believe the president's policies are responsible for high inflation. In addition, Biden won 44% of the support rate in this poll, up from 39% in the previous poll. The Biden administration is pushing for legislation to segregate client funds from those on cryptocurrency exchanges and ensure they are safe in the event of an exchange failure, according to people familiar with the matter, potentially limiting how the industry can operate.
Technical:
Dow: The three major U.S. stock indexes fell unilaterally. The Dow initially closed 3.57% at 31,490.07 points; the S&P 500 closed 4.04%, the worst single-day performance since June 2020; the NASDAQ closed 4.73%, it fell as much as 5% during the session. The Nasdaq-heavy tech stocks were green across the board, with Apple down nearly 6% and Amazon down more than 7%. The Dow is back near the low support level of 31200 before the test again, focusing on the target position of 32700 above the range band.
USD: The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond stood at 3% during the session, then gave up all the gains of the day, and finally closed at 2.884%. The dollar index started a rebound and finally closed 0.6% at 103.92. At present, the dollar is high and fluctuating, and the bulls do not have the advantage of profit and loss ratio and pay attention to the target position of 102.3 before the bottom.
Gold: Spot gold settled in a range of less than $20 on Wednesday. In the U.S. session, it touched an intraday high of $1,825 an ounce and then slightly corrected, and finally closed 0.1% at $1,816 an ounce. Currently, gold is hovering at a low level and is currently trading. Around $1814, continue to pay attention to the band callback of gold, and focus on the target position of 1836 above the range.
Crude oil: WTI crude oil fell below the $110 mark and finally closed down 3.95% at $109.09 per barrel; Brent crude finally closed down 3.10% at $109.22 per barrel. At present, chasing long is cautious, focusing on the pressure level near 118 above the bulls, and the bears focusing on the target position near 98 below.
(The above analysis only represents the analyst's point of view, the forex market is risky, and investors should be cautious)
Disclaimer:
The views in this article only represent the author's personal views, and do not constitute investment advice on this platform. This platform does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness and timeliness of the information in the article, and will not be liable for any loss caused by the use of or reliance on the information in the article.
This week's economic events include: Japan's Monetary Policy Minutes and U.S. Services PMI on Monday, impacting JPY and USD. Tuesday's RBA Interest Rate Decision affects AUD, with German Factory Orders influencing EUR. Wednesday sees German Industrial Production and U.S. Crude Inventories impacting EUR and USD. Thursday: RBA Governor speaks, with U.S. Jobless Claims. Friday: China's CPI and Canada's Unemployment Rate affect CNY and CAD.
As we approach the Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) report on August 2, 2024, market participants are keenly observing the data for insights into the U.S. labor market. The report is expected to show an increase of 194,000 to 206,000 jobs for July, indicating modest growth. This suggests potential softening in the labor market. A weaker-than-expected report could prompt the Fed to consider rate cuts, influencing the USD. Major currency pairs and gold prices will likely see volatility around the NFP release
The USD/JPY pair hovers around 152.50, just above a three-month low, as traders anticipate the Bank of Japan's policy decision, expecting a 10-basis-point rate hike and bond-buying tapering, which supports the Yen. A slight recovery in the US Dollar has paused the pair's rise, with the Dollar Index near 104.50 ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting, where rates are expected to stay unchanged but with dovish guidance.
This week, key economic events expected to generate high volatility include China's Q2 GDP and retail sales data, impacting CNY. The US will release Core Retail Sales and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, affecting USD. The UK's CPI data will influence GBP, and the ECB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference will impact EUR. These events will drive significant market movements due to their influence on monetary policy and economic outlooks.