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Abstract:Bearish bets on the Philippine peso increased as the central bank took a more cautious approach to tamping down inflation than its peers, while short positions on China's yuan eased following more stimulus and easing. COVID-19 restraints
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Short bets on the peso were at their biggest in at least four years amid concerns that the central bank's 25-basis-point boost this month won't curb inflationary pressures.
The peso has lost roughly 7% this year and is reaching a 16-1/2-year low.
The next governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas said the bank may contemplate greater rate hikes to strengthen the peso, but it won't match U.S. Federal Reserve policy tightening.
Bank of America analysts estimate a steady rate of tightening as the economy recovers and reopens.
Meanwhile, yuan bears receded on anticipation that removing COVID-19 limitations will boost the economy. The People's Bank of China hinted at accommodating policy, although its influence on the unit was modest.
The central bank restated its goal of making the yuan exchange rate more flexible and stable.
Short rupiah bets soared. Last week, Bank Indonesia kept rates at record lows and maintained a dovish approach, which analysts believe would weaken the currency.
The Indian rupee hit a record low on Wednesday amid fears about inflation, oil costs, and GDP.
Four-year high in rupee short positions.
Dealers favored Singapore's dollar. Singapore's primary consumer price index increased at its highest pace in almost a decade in May and is likely to peak around 4% in the third quarter.
Bearish bets on the South Korean won and Malaysian ringgit fell while Thai baht bets rose.
The Asian currency positioning survey asks analysts and investment managers about the Chinese yuan, South Korean won, Singapore dollar, Indonesian rupiah, Taiwan dollar, Indian rupee, Philippine peso, Malaysian ringgit, and Thai baht.
The poll uses net long/short positions from -3 to +3. +3 means the market is long U.S. dollars.
Non-deliverable forwards are included (NDFs).
Survey results (U.S. dollar vs. each currency):
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