Bank rescue leaves Fed in a rate bind

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole

韦恩·科尔 (wayne cole) 展望欧洲和全球市场的未来

So, U.S. authorities have ridden to the rescue of the financial system, generating the biggest rally in short-term bonds in decades amid talk the Federal Reserve might not hike rates at all next week given the stakes at play.

因此，美国当局出手拯救金融体系，引发了数十年来短期债券的最大涨幅，原因是美联储下周可能根本不会加息，因为事关重大。

The Asian day began with a bang when the Treasury and Fed announced they would cover all depositors at SVB, not just those under the $250,000 insurance cap, although share and bond holders would get no help.

亚洲交易日以一声巨响开始，财政部和美联储宣布他们将为 svb 的所有储户提供保障，而不仅仅是那些低于 250,000 美元保险上限的储户，尽管股票和债券持有人将得不到任何帮助。

The same went for depositors at New-York based SignatureBank which was wrapped up over the weekend – marking the second- and third-largest failures in U.S. banking history.

总部位于纽约的 signaturebank 的储户也是如此，该银行在周末结束了交易——标志着美国银行业历史上第二大和第三大失败。

They also announced a new acronym – the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) – which will lend for up to one year to any federally insured bank that is eligible for discount window access, in return for eligible collateral including Treasuries and agency securities.

他们还宣布了一个新的首字母缩略词——银行定期融资计划 (btfp)——将向任何有资格使用贴现窗口的联邦保险银行提供长达一年的贷款，以换取包括国债和机构证券在内的合格抵押品。

Crucially, the collateral will be valued at par, with no haircut, meaning banks can use bonds that are trading below book value without having to realise any losses.

至关重要的是，抵押品的价值将按面值计算，没有扣减，这意味着银行可以使用交易价格低于账面价值的债券，而不必意识到任何损失。

This was not a blanket guarantee for uninsured depositors, but the hope is clearly that it will prevent runs on other institutions.

这不是对未投保存款人的全面保证，但显然希望它能防止对其他机构的挤兑。

It was enough to spark a rally in U.S. stock futures, but banking stocks were still under pressure across Asia with Japans bank index down almost 5%.

这足以引发美国股指期货的反弹，但亚洲银行股仍然承压，日本银行股指数下跌近 5%。

Given the strain on the U.S. banking system, investors were also wondering whether the Fed would really risk hiking interest rates by an outsized 50 basis points next week.

鉴于美国银行系统面临的压力，投资者还想知道美联储是否真的会在下周冒着大幅加息 50 个基点的风险。

Goldman Sachs came right out and predicted a pause, although it still foresees hikes in May, June and July.

高盛直言不讳地预测加息会暂停，但仍预计 5 月、6 月和 7 月会加息。

Fed fund futures duly extended an early surge to completely price out the chance of 50 basis points, when this time last week it was priced at 72%.

联邦基金期货适当地延续了早期的飙升，完全排除了 50 个基点的可能性，而上周这个时候它的定价为 72%。

Yields on two-year Treasuries dived 19 basis points to 4.40%, and got as low as 4.34% at one stage. That brought the fall since Thursday to an astounding 66 basis points, the biggest three-session decline since the Black Monday crash of 1987.

两年期国债收益率下跌 19 个基点至 4.40%，一度低至 4.34%。这使自周四以来的跌幅达到惊人的 66 个基点，这是自 1987 年黑色星期一崩盘以来的最大三个交易日跌幅。

That was a drag for the dollar, while lifting the euro above $1.0700 resistance to a four-week high.

这拖累了美元，同时提振欧元突破 1.0700 美元阻力位，创下四周高位。

The move was contagious with markets now wagering Australias central bank will pause in April, while lengthening the odds on a hike by the Bank of England.

此举具有传染性，市场现在押注澳大利亚央行将在 4 月暂停加息，同时加大英国央行加息的可能性。

The ECB is still expected to go 50 basis points this week, but it will have to at least acknowledge the risks to financial stability, which could make it a dovish hike.

预计欧洲央行本周仍将加息 50 个基点，但它至少必须承认金融稳定面临的风险，这可能使其成为温和的加息。

This also promises to seriously complicate the market reaction to U.S. CPI data on Tuesday, where an upside surprise would put the Fed between a rock and a hard place.

这也有望使市场对周二美国 cpi 数据的反应严重复杂化，如果数据意外上行，美联储将进退两难。

It was notable that yields on long-dated Treasuries actually rose in Asia, perhaps signalling concerns that a constrained Fed would result in inflation staying higher for longer.

值得注意的是，亚洲长期国债的收益率实际上有所上升，这或许表明人们担心美联储的约束会导致通胀在更长时间内保持较高水平。

Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:

周一可能影响市场的主要发展：

– Member of the ECBs Executive Board Fabio Panetta participates in Eurogroup meeting in Brussels

– 欧洲央行执行委员会成员 fabio panetta 参加在布鲁塞尔举行的欧元集团会议

– President Joe Biden will address the banking crisis and maybe flag proposals for tougher regulations

– 乔·拜登总统将解决银行业危机，并可能提出更严格监管的提案

(By Wayne Cole; Editing by Edmund Klamann)

（作者：韦恩·科尔；埃德蒙·克拉曼编辑）