Taiwan set to stand pat on rates amid global financial woes – Reuters Poll

TAIPEI (Reuters) – Taiwan‘s central bank is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged this week, according to economists polled by Reuters, as the island’s economy and inflation slow and global banking woes unnerve markets.

台北（路透社）——由于台湾经济和通胀放缓以及全球银行业困境令市场不安，路透社调查的经济学家预计台湾央行本周将维持政策利率不变。

The central bank is likely to keep the benchmark discount rate at 1.75% at its quarterly meeting on Thursday, according to the median forecast of 24 economists surveyed. At the last meeting, in December, the bank raised the rate by 12.5 basis points to its current level.

根据接受调查的 24 位经济学家的预测中值，央行可能在周四的季度会议上将基准贴现率维持在 1.75%。在去年 12 月的最后一次会议上，该银行将利率上调 12.5 个基点至当前水平。

Eight of the economists surveyed expected the central bank would lift the rate by 12.5% basis points to 1.875%.

接受调查的八位经济学家预计央行将利率上调 12.5% 基点至 1.875%。

Looking ahead, the median forecast among those polled was for the central bank to keep the rate at 1.75% for all of 2023 and most of 2024 before cutting it to 1.625% in the fourth quarter of next year.

展望未来，受访者的预测中值是，央行将在 2023 年全年和 2024 年大部分时间将利率维持在 1.75%，然后在明年第四季度将利率降至 1.625%。

The central bank in December signalled an end to its hiking cycle given it expects the economy to decelerate and inflation to drop below 2% this year.

央行在 12 月表示结束其加息周期，因为它预计今年经济将减速且通胀率将降至 2% 以下。

Taiwans consumer price index was 2.43% higher in February than a year earlier, coming in below economist expectations.

台湾 2 月份消费者价格指数较上年同期上涨 2.43%，低于经济学家的预期。

Cathay United Bank chief economist Lin Chi-chao said Taiwans rates were unlikely to rise because of expectations of a decline in inflation, the slowing domestic economy and a probable smaller U.S. Federal Reserve rate rise this week given the chaos that has erupted since Silicon Valley Bank failed.

国泰世华首席经济学家林志超表示，台湾加息的可能性不大，因预期通胀下降、国内经济放缓，以及鉴于自硅谷银行以来爆发的混乱局面，本周美联储加息幅度可能较小失败的。

“The central bank will comprehensively consider the international economic and financial situation and will stand still,” Lin said.

林说：“央行将综合考虑国际经济金融形势，按兵不动。”

Taiwan deputy central bank governor Yen Tzung-ta said on Monday that Taiwans current inflation wave was not a short-term phenomenon, but noted in recent history the bank had rarely raised interest rates during export downturns.

台湾央行副行长严宗达周一表示，台湾当前的通胀浪潮不是短期现象，但指出在近代历史上该行很少在出口低迷时加息。

Taiwans exports in February fell on an annual basis for a sixth consecutive month to the lowest level in two years because of the deteriorating global economy, with the outlook remaining dim for at least the first half of the year.

由于全球经济恶化，台湾2月出口连续第六个月同比下降至两年来的最低水平，至少上半年前景依然暗淡。

Taiwan is a major producer of semiconductors used in everything from cars to smartphones, but with global consumer demand hit by high inflation and impact of the war in Ukraine, Taiwans economy shrank 0.41% in the fourth quarter of last year.

台湾是半导体的主要生产地，用于从汽车到智能手机的各种产品，但由于全球消费者需求受到高通胀和乌克兰战争的影响，去年第四季度台湾经济萎缩了 0.41%。

Taiwans statistics agency last month lowered its gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for 2023 to 2.12%, down from the 2.75% prediction issued in November.

台湾统计局上个月将其对 2023 年国内生产总值 (gdp) 的预测从 11 月发布的 2.75% 预测下调至 2.12%。

The central bank will give its revised forecast for 2023 GDP growth on Thursday. In December, it forecast a 2.53% expansion, down from a previous prediction of 2.9%.

央行将在周四给出 2023 年 gdp 增长的修订预测。 12 月，它预测扩张 2.53%，低于之前预测的 2.9%。

(Poll compiled by Anant Chandak and Carol Lee; Reporting by Liang-sa Loh and Ben Blanchard; additional reporting by Faith Hung; Editing by Jamie Freed)

（民意调查由 anant chandak 和 carol lee 编制；liang-sa loh 和 ben blanchard 报道；faith hung 补充报道；jamie freed 编辑）