Australias CBA, Westpac expect rate-hike pause in April; other top banks vary

(Reuters) – Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) expects the countrys central bank to pull brakes next week on one of the most aggressive tightening cycles in decades as data signalled signs of the economy slowing and inflation peaking.

（路透社）——澳大利亚联邦银行（cba）预计该国央行下周将在数十年来最激进的紧缩周期之一中刹车，因为数据显示出经济放缓和通胀见顶的迹象。

Gareth Aird, head of Australian Economics at CBA, sees a 55% probability of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) pausing on April 4, after recent inflation and retail sales data showed clear signs of rising interest rates starting to pinch consumers.

cba 澳大利亚经济主管加雷思·艾尔德 (gareth aird) 认为，在最近的通胀和零售销售数据显示利率上升开始对消费者造成压力的明显迹象之后，澳大利亚储备银行 (rba) 在 4 月 4 日暂停加息的可能性为 55%。

“We believe a pause would be the appropriate policy move at this stage, given the RBA has put through an incredible amount of tightening in a short space of time,” Aird wrote in a note.

艾尔德在一份报告中写道：“我们认为，鉴于澳洲联储在短时间内实施了令人难以置信的紧缩政策，现阶段暂停加息将是适当的政策举措。”

The RBA has hiked its interest rate at every meeting since last May, hiking a cumulative 350 bps over 10 meetings – one of the most aggressive tightening cycle in decades – in its fight to contain runaway inflation.

自去年 5 月以来，澳洲联储在每次会议上都加息，在 10 次会议上累计加息 350 个基点——这是几十年来最激进的紧缩周期之一——以遏制失控的通胀。

Aird, however, notes the central bank may retain “full optionality to raise the cash rate in May” if data comes hotter-than-expected over the next month.

然而，aird 指出，如果下个月的数据好于预期，央行可能会保留“在 5 月份提高现金利率的完全选择权”。

“A pause therefore in April coupled with a hiking bias makes a lot of sense.”

“因此，4 月份的暂停加上远足倾向是很有意义的。”

Westpac Banking Corp, the countrys third-biggest lender, also forecast a pause next month with a final hike in May as it expects returning inflation to the target range to remain the key theme.

该国第三大银行西太平洋银行 (westpac banking corp) 也预测下个月将暂停加息，最后一次加息将在 5 月进行，因为它预计通胀回到目标范围仍将是关键主题。

Other two of the “Big Four” Australian lenders – National Australia Bank (NAB) and ANZ Group Holdings – expect a quarter-point hike next week, with the latter expecting another in May.

澳大利亚“四大”银行中的另外两家——澳大利亚国民银行 (nab) 和澳新银行集团控股——预计下周将加息 25 个基点，后者预计 5 月份将再次加息。

NAB, the no. 2 bank, continues to forecast rate cuts in the first half of 2024, seeing the rates down at 3.1% as the economy slows and unemployment rises.

nab，没有。 2 银行继续预测 2024 年上半年将降息，随着经济放缓和失业率上升，利率将降至 3.1%。

(Reporting by Sameer Manekar in Bengaluru; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips)

（sameer manekar 在班加罗尔报道；sherry jacob-phillips 编辑）