German exports expected to grow despite challenging start

BERLIN (Reuters) – German exports started the year as a drag on the economy but a recovery is expected thanks to easing supply chain constraints and high industrial orders, German economic institutes said on Wednesday.

Five economic institutes are forecasting that exports fell 0.7% in the first quarter of the year, but that should be compensated with an increase of 0.9% in the second quarter.

In 2023, exports are predicted to grow by 0.6%. In 2024, there will a bigger rise of 3.4%.

Germany is expected to narrowly escape recession and post modest growth in the first quarter of the year, according to the forecasts of leading economic institutes presented in Berlin on Wednesday.

The so-called Joint Economic Forecasts expect a 0.1% expansion in gross domestic product in the first quarter, as Reuters reported on Tuesday. This follows a 0.4% contraction in the fourth quarter of 2022.

Gross domestic product in Germany is forecast to grow by 0.3% in 2023, up from a predicted contraction of 0.4% in autumn.

(Reporting by Maria Martinez, Editing by Rachel More)