Canadian Dollar Price Outlook: Loonie Gains Slam USD/CAD into Support

• USD/CAD price recovery targeting resistance – risk for possible topside exhaustion

  美元/加元价格回升目标阻力 - 可能出现上行疲惫的风险

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• Check out our 2019 projections in our Free DailyFX US DollarTrading Forecasts

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  加入Michael参加Live Weekly Strategy网络研讨会星期一中午12点30分

The Canadian Dollar is up more than 2.7% against the US Dollar since the late-May high in USD/CAD with price now testing near-term downtrend support. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/CAD charts into the close of the month. Review this weeks Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

加拿大元自美元兑美元汇率上涨超过2.7％ - 美元/加元高位运行，现在价格测试近期下行趋势支撑。这些是更新的目标和失效水平，对于美元/加元月份图表而言至关重要。回顾本周的策略网络研讨会，深入了解此设置及其他内容。

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外汇交易新手入门？开始使用此免费入门指南

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USD/CAD Price Chart - Loonie Daily

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Technical Outlook: In my latest Canadian Dollar Price Outlook we noted that the USD/CAD recovery was approaching key topside resistance objectives at the, “1.3435/37 pivot zone with trendline confluence just higher around ~1.3460s – were looking for possible exhaustion off one of these two zones.” Price registered a high at 1.3432 before posting an outside-day reversal lower on the back of the FOMC interest rate decision.

技术展望：在我最新的加拿大元价格展望中，我们注意到美元/加元的复苏接近关键的上行阻力目标，“1.3435 / 37枢轴区域，趋势线汇合点仅在1.3460附近 - 正在寻找这两个区域之一的可能疲惫。”价格创下1.3432的高位。在FOMC利率决定的背后发布了一个较低的外部逆转之前。

The decline has now taken out the monthly opening-range lows with price now responding to confluence support at 1.3175 – a region defined by the lower median-line parallel and the 78.6% retracement of the late-January advance. A daily close below this threshold is needed to mark resumption targeting more significant support at the yearly low-day close / 100% extension at 1.3105/23 – look for a bigger reaction there IF reached.

这一下降已经取消了每月开盘价低点，价格现在回应汇合支撑位1.3175 - 由中低线平行线和1月末推进的78.6％回撤线定义的区域。每日收盘价低于此门槛需要标记恢复目标，在年度低点收盘/ 100％延长1.3105 / 23处寻求更重要的支撑 - 在IF达到更大的反应。

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为什么普通交易者会失败？在交易中避免这些错误

USD/CAD Price Chart - Loonie 120min

美元/加元价格走势图 - Loone 120分钟

Notes: A closer look at price action shows Loonie trading within the confines of a descending pitchfork formation extending off the May highs with USD/CAD in consolidation just above the lower parallel. Initial resistance stands at 1.3238 backed by 1.3258 with bearish invalidation at the median-line (currently ~1.3280s).

注意：仔细观察价格走势显示Loonie在5月份延伸的干草叉形成范围内交易合并美元/加元的高点略低于并行线。初步阻力位于1.3238，受1.3258支撑，中线无效（目前约为1.3280）。

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了解如何在我们的免费交易指南中自信交易

Bottom line: The broader focus remains weighted to the downside in USD/CAD on the back of last week‘s reversal – that said, the decline is now testing initial downtrend support. A good place to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops. I’ll favor fading strength while below the median-line targeting a test of the 1.3105/23 support zone. Review my latest Canadian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook for a longer-term technical picture on USD/CAD

一句话：在上周逆转的背景下，更广泛的焦点仍然是美元/加元的下行加权 - 也就是说，下跌正在测试最初的下行支撑。减少短时间/降低保护性停止的好地方。我倾向于在低于中线的情况下褪色强度，目标是测试1.3105 / 23支撑区域。查看我最新的加拿大元每周价格展望，了解美元/加元的长期技术图片

USD/CAD Trader Sentiment

USD / CAD Trader Sentiment

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• A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short USD/CAD - the ratio stands at -1.06 (48.6% of traders are long) – neutral reading

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• Long positions are 14.9% higher than yesterday and 28.8% higher from last week

  多头头寸比昨天增加14.9％，比上周增加28.8％

• Short positions are 18.5% higher than yesterday and 24.0% lower from last week

  持仓量比昨天增加18.5％，比上周减少24.0％

• We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD/CAD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a USD/CAD-bullish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

  我们通常采取逆向观点来看待人群情绪，事实上交易者是网 - 短期建议美元/加元价格可能继续上涨。交易员很好与昨天和上周的净空头相比，当前定位和近期变化的结合使我们从情绪的角度看出美元/加元看涨逆势交易偏差。