Swiss Franc Price Outlook: USD/CHF Rally Grinds into Trend Resistance

• USD/CHF grinds into uptrend resistance- risk for exhaustion while below 9951

  美元/瑞士法郎进入上行阻力位 - 低于9951的疲惫风险

The Swiss Franc has fallen more than 2.7% against the US Dollar from the mid-August / yearly extremes with USD/CHF stretching into key resistance this week. The advance remains vulnerable while below this threshold with the weekly opening-range now in focus. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/CHF charts. Review this week's Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Sterling price setup and more.

瑞士法郎兑美元汇率下跌超过2.7％ 8月中旬/年度极端情况，美元兑瑞士法郎本周延续至关键阻力位。在低于此门槛的情况下，进展仍然很脆弱，每周开放范围现在成为焦点。这些是美元/瑞士法郎图表中重要的更新目标和失效水平。回顾本周的战略网络研讨会，深入分析这种英镑价格设置等。

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Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF Daily

瑞士法郎价格图表 - 美元/瑞士法郎每日

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on Tradingview

图表由技术战略师Michael Boutros编写; Tradingview上的美元/瑞士法郎

Technical Outlook: In my most recent Swiss Franc Trade Outlook, we noted that USD/CHF was approaching a major, “resistance zone at 9931/48 – a region defined by the 100% ext of the August advance and the 50% retracement of the yearly range.” Out bottom line cited that we were,“looking for a pivot here with the broader advance at risk while below 9951.” Price registered a high this week at 9946 before turning lower with Swissy poised to mark an outside-day reversal off fresh monthly highs today.

技术展望：在我最近的瑞士法郎贸易展望中，我们注意到美元兑瑞郎接近主要的，“阻力区位于9931/48 - 这个区域由8月份的100％前进和年度范围的50％回撤定义。”出线底线表示我们是，“在这里寻找更广泛的支点风险提升至9951以下。”本周价格创下9946美元的高点，之后瑞士兑日元汇率走低，预示着今日新的月度高点出现逆转。

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Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF 120min

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Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on Tradingview

图表由技术策略师Michael Boutros编写; USD / CHF关于Tradingview

Notes: A closer look at Swissy price action sees USD/CHF trading within the confines of an ascending pitchfork formation extending off the August lows with the recent advance holding below the 75% parallel for the last two weeks. Note that this slope converges on the 9948/52 region over the next few days and further highlights the technical significance of this threshold.

备注：仔细观察瑞士的价格走势，美元兑瑞士法郎在8月低点延伸的干草叉形成范围内交易，最近的涨幅在过去两周内保持在75％以下。注意这个斜率收敛于9948 / 52区域在接下来的几天内进一步凸显了这一门槛的技术意义。

Weekly open support rests at 9875 backed closely by the highlighted trendline confluence. A break back below the lower parallel / yearly open at 9839 would be needed to suggest a more significant high was registered this week. A topside breach of the weekly opening-range highs / 9952 would mark resumption of the broader uptrend with such a scenario targeting pitchfork resistance (currently ~9990s) and the 61.8% retracement at 1.0016.

每周开盘支撑位于9875，受到突出趋势线汇合的支撑。需要较低的平行线/年度开盘价9839才能显示本周会出现更高位的高点。上行突破每周开盘高位/ 9952将突破更广泛的上行趋势，这种情况针对干草叉阻力（目前〜 9990s）和1.0016的61.8％回撤。

Bottom line: USD/CHF is testing uptrend resistance here with the recent price advance vulnerable while below 9948/52. From a trading standpoint, a good spot to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops. Look side-ways to lower with a break of the weekly range lows to challenge the lower parallels. Ultimately, a larger decline would offer more favorable long-entries closer to trend support.

底线：美元/瑞士法郎正在测试上行阻力，近期价格上涨受到冲击，而低于9948/52。从交易的角度来看，这是减少长期暴露/提高保护性止损的好地方。看看通过突破每周区间低点来降低价格，以挑战较低的平行线。最终，较大的下跌将提供更接近趋势支撑的更有利的长期参与。

Swiss Franc Trader Sentiment – USD/CHF Price Chart

Swiss Franc Trader Sentiment - USD / CHF Price Chart

• A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short USD/CHF - the ratio stands at -1.12 (47.1% of traders are long) – weak bullish reading

  IG客户情绪摘要显示交易者是净空头美元/瑞士法郎 - 比率为-1.12 （47.1％的交易者持有多头） - 弱看涨读数

• Long positions are 1.6% lower than yesterday and 20.5% lower from last week

  多头头寸为1.6％l比昨天下降20.5％

• Short positions are0.7% lower than yesterday and 12.0% higher from last week

  空头头寸比昨天减少0.7％，比上周增加12.0％

• We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD/CHF prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USD/CHF-bullish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

  我们通常采取逆向观点来观察市场情绪，而交易商净空头表明美元兑瑞士法郎的价格可能继续上涨。交易商进一步净空至昨日和上周，当前情绪和近期变化的结合使我们从情绪的角度看美元/瑞士法郎看涨逆势交易偏差。

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Key US / Swiss Data Releases

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Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

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Active Trade Setups

活跃的交易设置

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  黄金价格目标：XAU /美元寻找六年高点的方向