Top 5 Events: February UK GDP & GBPJPY Price Outlook

Talking Points:

谈话要点：

- The February UK Industrial Production Manufacturing Production, and GDP are due on Wednesday at 08:30 GMT.

- 2月英国工业生产制造业生产和GDP将于周三格林尼治标准时间08:30公布。

- Consensus forecasts expected UK industrial and manufacturing production to have contracted in February, and for GDP to come in flat.

- 共识预测预计2月份英国工业和制造业产量将出现萎缩，而GDP将持平。

- Retail traders have started buying the Canadian Dollar, with USDCAD net-shorts having risen in recent days.

- 零售交易商已开始购买加拿大美元，最近几天美元兑加元净空头有所上涨。

Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below.

周一美国东部时间7:30 /格林威治标准时间11:30参加FX周前网络研讨会，我们在此讨论未来几天的顶级事件风险以及围绕下列事件进行外汇市场交易的策略。

04/10 WEDNESDAY | 08:30 GMT | GBP Industrial & Manufacturing Production, GDP (FEB)

04/10星期三|格林尼治标准时间08:30 |英镑工业和制造业生产，国内生产总值（FEB）

Tensions over Brexit have increased in recent weeks, and the fact that the UK government has blown past the original March 29 deadline has led to an increased level of uncertainty impacting business, consumer, and economic confidence.

最近几周英国脱欧的紧张局势有所增加，英国政府已经超过原定3月29日的最后期限，这导致了不确定性增加导致商业，消费者和经济信心受到影响。

With confidence turning lower in Q1‘19 on the back of Brexit, there’s little surprise that real economic data is starting to show signs of duress. According to Bloomberg News, the trio of UK data releases on Wednesday morning should underscore the deteriorating economic environment.

英国脱欧公司在19年第一季度信心转低后，实际经济数据开始出现并不令人意外显示胁迫的迹象。据彭博新闻报道，周三上午发布的三份英国数据应该强调经济环境的恶化。

February UK Industrial Production is due to have grown by only 0.1% over the past month, down from the 0.6% monthly rate seen in January; the year-over-year reading is due in at -0.8% from -0.9%. February UK Manufacturing Production will take a similar path: 0.2% from 0.8% (m/m); and -0.7% from -1.1% (y/y). Ultimately, the monthly February UK GDP reading is due in at 0% from 0.5%.

2月英国工业生产过去仅增长0.1％月份，低于1月份的0.6％月率;年同比数据为-0.8％-0.8％。 2月份英国制造业生产将采取类似的方式：0.2％（0.8％）（m / m）; -0.7％-1.1％（y / y）。最终，每月2月英国国内生产总值的读数将从0.5％降至0％。

Pairs to Watch: EURGBP, GBPJPY, GBPUSD

值得关注：EURGBP，GBPJPY，GBPUSD

GBPJPY Price Chart: Daily Timeframe (November 2017 to April 2019)

GBPJPY价格走势图：每日时间表（2017年11月至2019年4月）

Volatility in the GBP-crosses remains elevated relative to other major currency crosses, even if 1-week and 1-month implied readings have fallen in recent days (back towards their lowest level since March 19).Nevertheless, there hasnt been much progress made over the past several weeks. Since February 22, GBPJPY prices have traded in a range between 143.78 and 148.87.

英镑交叉盘的波动率相对于其他波动率仍然保持高位主要货币交叉，即使最近几天1周和1个月的隐含数据下降（回到3月19日以来的最低水平）。然而，过去几周没有取得多大进展。自2月22日以来，英镑兑日元的价格在143.78和148.87之间交易。

Accordingly, to avoid the latest Brexit news from interfering with any decision making, traders may find that bulls will have an easier time more than 148.87 while bears may take control below 143.78. It should be noted that GBPJPY has failed to retake the uptrend from the post-Yen flash crash closing low.

因此，为了避免最新的英国退欧新闻干扰任何决策，交易者可能会发现多头将会有更多的时间超过148.87，而空头可能控制在143.78以下。值得注意的是，英镑兑日元未能从日元后的关键低点重新获得上升趋势。

IG Client Sentiment Index: GBPJPY (April 5, 2019)

IG客户情绪指数：GBPJPY（2019年4月5日）

Retail trader data shows 49.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.03 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 5.8% lower than yesterday and 6.9% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 9.6% lower than yesterday and 12.4% higher from last week.

零售交易者数据显示，49.2％的交易者为净多头，交易者做空者的比率为1.03比1.交易者净多头数为5.8％低于昨天，比上周下降6.9％，而交易商净空头数比昨天减少9.6％，比上周增加12.4％。

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBPJPY prices may continue to rise. Positioning is less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed GBPJPY trading bias.

我们通常采取逆势观点是人群情绪，而且交易商净空头显示英镑兑日元价格可能继续上涨。定位比昨天的净空头少，但比上周更多的净空头。当前情绪和近期变化的结合使我们对英镑兑日元的交易偏差进一步加剧。

FX TRADING RESOURCES

外汇交易资源

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

您是否是新的或有经验的交易者，DailyFX有多种资源可以帮助您：监控交易者情绪的指标;季度交易预测;每日举办的分析和教育网络研讨会;交易指南，以帮助您提高交易表现，甚至是那些不熟悉外汇交易的人。

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

---由高级货币策略师CFA Christopher Vecchio撰写